According to the report of News.am, Board Chairman, Public Projects Center NGO (Georgia),Gia Khukhashvili said that the most significant change in the South Caucasus last year was that Europe stopped viewing Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey as one geopolitical axis with a common security system, which plays an energy partner’s role. “At the end of this year this configuration can be said to be changing, pendulums may swing in different directions. So great changes may take place in the region,” he said.
The attempted Armenian-Turkish reconciliation can be considered the most important event in the South Caucasus in 2009. Khukhashvili said that it can not only be considered “an event of the year,” but also the most serious change in the region over the last decade. If this process proves a success, it may radically change the regional configuration and security system. “Armenia, which has actually been cut off from the regional processes, can now be fully involved in them. Moreover, it may become an independent player — both for the region and for the entire world,” Khukhashvili said.
The expert pointed out that Armenia, which used to be fully dependent on its main strategic apply, Russia, now has a chance to play an independent role, “looking in other directions and forming relations with new partners.” Khukhashvili does not rule out a new military conflict or resumption of old ones next year. “Everything is possible in the present situation, when large players’ interests are decisive throughout the world. The situation is rather strained not only in our region — global economy is sustaining huge losses. Such situations are always fraught with both political and military risks. Some social problems have to be coped with, and military conflicts are more probable,” Khukhashvili said.
As regards the situation inside Georgia, he pointed out that, unlike Armenia, Georgia is actually “on the decline.” “We are losing our geopolitical role day after day, while Turkey is enhancing its role,” he said. Commenting on the domestic political situation in Georgia, the expert pointed out that no real political development can be seen in the country, and the public does not trust either the authorities or the Opposition. As to the Opposition’s claims about a wave of protests and a change of power expected next year, Khukhashvili stressed that “rhetoric is yet too far from real actions.” “The Georgian society is mainly showing nihilistic attitudes to political processes. People do not trust either the authorities or the Opposition and have actually remained without a leader,” the expert said. Khukhashvili said that the situation can radically change toward next spring. “Things are known to be rapidly changing in Georgia,” he concluded.
