On Tuesday Armenia’s Constitutional Court is likely approve the protocols signed with Turkey two months ago to normalize relations, but this will not prevent Yerevan from taking its signature back, especially if Ankara delays its ratification of the protocols. As Turkish sources say that swift action by Turkey is not likely without progress on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, the future of this rapprochement is uncertain.
“Our country is ready to ratify and implement the protocols signed in Zurich in accordance with our international obligations in a sensible timeframe, without setting a precondition for Turkey regarding the recognition of the Armenian Genocide,” said Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, as quoted by the Armenian Reporter in December.
He was referring to the two protocols signed on Oct. 10, 2009 to normalize ties and reopen the border between Turkey and Armenia. Turkey insists that Armenia settle its dispute with Azerbaijan before the protocols are ratified. The Nagorno-Karabakh region has been under Armenian occupation since a 1994 cease-fire which followed a six-year war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
The Armenian opposition has not been idle either. The opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), which has campaigned against the protocols, argues that the Armenian government should exit the process.
As Armenia debates the issue again on the eve of the constitutional approval process, Armenian constitutional law expert Hrayr Tovmasyan has said the court’s approval would not prevent Armenia from recalling its signature on the protocols, according to the Mediamax news agency.
Additionally, Armenian National Assembly Vice-Spokesman Samvel Nikoyan said in an interview with the Russian Slon.ru Web site recently that if Turkey delays the process, Armenia may cancel its signature.
The Turkish government has already sent the protocols to Parliament for ratification, a procedural requirement. According to sources from the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the opposition and the public would be convinced about the benefit of normalizing relations with Armenia if there is progress in the talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Turkey was sincere in its intent in signing the protocols with Armenia. Normalizing relations with Armenia is something we sincerely desire on its own, but it would also help eliminate other problems in the region,” said a source from the Foreign Ministry.
Suat Kınıklıoğlu, the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) deputy chairman for external affairs and a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Parliament, told Today’s Zaman that the prime minister’s statements in Baku, Ankara and Washington were clear.
“He is reflecting the prevailing sentiment about the region. That is exactly what informs Turkey’s approach to Turkish-Armenian normalization: It is unrealistic to discuss normalization between our countries when a very abnormal situation exists right beside us,” he said, adding: “Turkey’s neighborhood policy foresees stabilization of the South Caucasus. For that to happen, we need concrete movement on regional conflicts, a provision laid out in the protocols.”
However, the Armenian side does not see the issue that way. Asked recently by Armenia TV about the Karabakh-related demands repeated in Washington by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Sarksyan said they were “unequivocally doomed to failure.”
Foreign policy expert Mensur Akgün, who recently came back from a trip to Armenia, said the Armenian side argues that Turkey’s conditions help neither the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia nor the rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Rightly or wrongly, this is something Turkey should take into consideration. They have a point that the processes are parallel, but if one of the tracks becomes a precondition for [progress on] the other, then the cycle of conflict can never be broken,” he said.
Akgün also draws attention to the fact that Turkey is struggling with a spate of serious domestic problems at home such as the Kurdish problem, trying to settle the score with its unpleasant past.
“I don’t think the government can shoulder another political burden yet and deal with the Armenian issue, considering the opposition in Parliament and dissent in the streets. Needless to say, they don’t want to jeopardize relations with Azerbaijan. All in all, it is not easy for Turkey to move forward unless there is some progress in the talks between the parties,” he added.
Still, there might be hope. Making an assessment of developments in 2009 during a press conference in late December, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said that Turkey always had a positive approach in regard to the protocols signed with Armenia.
Kınıklıoğlu echoed that view.
“In our view the status quo is no longer sustainable in the South Caucasus. We will see movement toward the resolution of the Karabakh issue and Turkish-Armenian normalization,” he said. “In this regard, Turkey is taking a proactive stance, a preventive diplomacy. August 2008 showed all of us that if we wait for regional conflicts to fester, the outcome can be very detrimental. Ankara is working with our regional partners to make headway in regional affairs. We particularly appreciate the constructive role Moscow is playing in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.”
Indeed, international mediators are working hard to secure a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia is one of the three main international mediators overseeing peace talks, which are led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk group.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told reporters last month that if the current pace of talks was sustained, a peace deal would be ready soon.
“If the positive pace achieved in the negotiating process ... is continued next year, then we can count on a rather swift final agreement of the basic principles for resolution [of the conflict] and the working out of the text for a peace agreement,” he said in Moscow on Dec. 10 after the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia came together at OSCE meeting in Athens. The presidents of the two countries have met five times so far to discuss the issue.
Today’s Zaman
