“Turkey-Armenia relations” which is highly important for the future of the Southern Caucasus has gained a new dimension with the signing of the protocols on October 10 in Zurich.
The content of the protocols, what developments they will bring, and the criticisms directed towards the signed documents are being discussed for nearly two months. The Armenian occupation of Karabakh and not being able to reach a solution yet stands in the way of the protocols by being the main factor in determining the developments hereafter.
The protocols are now waiting to be ratified and to enter into force after having been submitted to the parliaments of both countries. During the ratification process, Armenia has expressed that they have given priority to Turkey. Armenian President Sarkisian and Foreign Minister Nalbandyan have conveyed that the protocols will pass through the Armenian Parliament only after Turkey’s ratification. However, in all the statements made in Turkey, especially by Prime Minister Erdoğan, it has been emphasized that unless the Karabakh Conflict is put on a path of absolute settlement, the Parliament will not ratify the protocols.
The protocols being signed within the framework of normalizing relations with Armenia have been submitted to the Chairmanship of the Turkish Grand National Assembly. The protocols will first be discussed in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament. If accepted, they will be assessed in the General Assembly.
The Turkish Government has emphasized numerous times that unless Armenia withdraws from the territories they have occupied, the protocols will not be negotiated in the Parliament. Turkey not expressing any fixed date for the ratification of the protocols must have caused concern in Armenia that their statements have started getting stronger. As a matter of fact, a constitutional change, carrying an intimidating element towards Turkey, is on the current agenda of Armenia. Recently, the Republic of Armenia had declared their plans for a law amendment which would make the withdrawal from international treaties possible. Armenian authorities stated that they might withdraw from the agreement if Turkey delays the ratification of the protocols.
It seems that Yerevan has created a belief that Turkey will either delay the protocols for a long time or abolish them entirely. Such a belief can create panic, especially within the Sarkisian Government. Sarkisian, being subjected to harsh criticisms from the Opposition and Diaspora for the signing of the protocols with Turkey, is giving indications that Armenia might take a step back also. Such a move will be an irreversible mistake for Armenia which has gained a long way in normalizing relations with Turkey.
Despite Armenia’s “genocide” allegations and their obsessive attitude arising from their Turkish hostility, they have gained the chance to escape their alienation in the region with Turkey’s principle of “zero problems with neighbors”.
Armenia, which has made hostility with their neighbors obstinate, should not forget that they are the most crucial factor in destroying stability in the Southern Caucasus region because of their occupation of Karabakh and Azerbaijani territory and therefore, should make use of any opportunity they get. Armenia’s threat of withdrawing from international treaties and the law amendments for this purpose will not motivate Turkey in ratifying the protocols, but will create other unsolvable disagreements. Oya Eren/avim.org.tr
