Interview with Stephen Larrabee, Distinguished Chair in European Security, RAND.
Q: What do you think about the current geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus region? What would you say about Russia’s, as well as the USA’s, foreign policy moves in relation to Azerbaijan?
A: The political situation in the South Caucasus is in great flux. The Turkish rapprochement with Armenia has the potential to significantly change the political dynamics in the region if it is carefully coordinated with Azerbaijan and linked to visible progress toward a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It would enable Armenia to reduce its dependence on Russia and open up new prospects for regional cooperation. That is why the United States supports the the rapprochement process between Turkey and Armenia. It also would like to see a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but does not believe that progress in the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia should be directly linked to progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. The main reason why it wants the process of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement to be delinked from a settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh is because an improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations is important in order to prevent the passage of the Armenian Genocide Resolution before the Congress. Passage of the Resolution would lead to a crisis in US-Turkish relations. Thus the Obama administration does not want the process of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia to formally depend on a settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh because this could slow progress in the rapprochement process between Ankara and Yerevan, which in turn would make it harder to defeat the Armenian Genocide Resolution. Russia’s main goal is to preserve its influence in the South Caucasus. It thus as little interest in seeing a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue nor in seeing a normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan since this would reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia.
Q: What are the main points of the clash of Russian and American interests in the former Soviet countries, and especially in Azerbaijan? In your opinion, is right to say “world power” concerning Russia? Is this country a real world power?
A: The main source of controversy between the US and Russia in the post-Soviet space is the attempt by Russia to try to get the West to formally accept that the post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan, falls within the Russian sphere of influence and that Russia has “privileged interests” there — which is a code word for sphere of influence. The United States does not accept the concept of spheres of influence. It believes every country— including Azerbaijan — should have the right to decide for itself the path of its internal political development and foreign policy alliances and ties. Russia today is an important regional power, but I would not say it is a world power in the sense that the former Soviet Union was. Russia’s power and influence, while expanding, is more limited than that of the former Soviet Union.
Q: What do you think about the war potential of Azerbaijan? Does Azerbaijan have any chances to become a NATO member in the near future? What kind of reforms must be carried out in the Azerbaijan’s Army?
A: Azerbaijan could become a candidate for membership in NATO at some point but it would have to undertake a much deeper and far-reaching process of political and economic reform than has taken place to date. It would also have to significantly restructure its military so that it was more capable of working with NATO forces. This process — especially the process of political and economic reform — would take considerable time.
What do you think about the Russian military base in Armenia? In your opinion, if military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh break out again, will the Russian military base take part in it on the Armenia’s side?
Russia does not want to see a new conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. If a conflict were to break out, Russia would try to use diplomatic means to halt the conflict. It would only threaten to use military force in extremis if its own forces were endangered.
Q: What interests does the EU pursue in the process of the normalization the relationships between Turkey and Armenia? Why doesn’t the EU make the same intensive efforts for settling the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in accordance with the main principles of international law?
A: The EU has expanded its outreach to the parts of the post-Soviet space through its European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and and Eastern Partnership. However, its main purpose is not conflict management. Individual members of the EU such as France, which is co-Chairman of the Minsk Group, have been involved in trying to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
News.Az
