Interview with Jason Katz, principal of the Tool Shed Group, a US-based consultancy that advises foreign governments.
Q: What do you expect from the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Sochi on 25 January?
A: It is hard to discern the outcome of today’s talks or any forward movement as a result, as the OSCE’s Minsk Group did not release excerpts of the discussions, aside from reporting that the parties had agreed to a preamble to an agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I surmise that there was not a great amount of forward movement, however. Prior to the beginning of the talks, Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbandian publicly remarked that he did not predict any progress on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010. It was a bad sign in terms of the talks being fruitful that one party chose to make a proclamation such as this. It is never a good beginning or continuing point.
Q: Do the Armenian foreign minister's remarks that he does not expect progress on a Karabakh settlement in 2010 harm the talks process?
A: Absolutely, Nalbandian’s statement hurts the negotiations and process towards resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It was a somewhat irresponsible and self-defeating statement. There was no such statement or even anything resembling it from President Aliyev or from Foreign Minister Mammadyarov on the Azerbaijani side. It really comes down to a matter of sincerity and credibility. Azerbaijan entered this latest round of talks in good faith and ready to do real negotiating. It seems that, based on Nalbandian’s remarks, Armenia had no such imperative.
Q: Is a resumption of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia likely if there is no progress in negotiations in the near future?
A: I hope this will not be the case. I would not like to see the resulting deaths on either side in a war such as this. The Armenian side constantly laments and complains that Azerbaijan’s defence budget is larger than Armenia’s entire national budget. This is their evidence of what they perceive as Azerbaijani war-mongering. This is a fact taken out of context, however. The reality is that Armenia remains a terribly poor and underdeveloped nation. Azerbaijan is developing at a break-neck pace and its budgets, national and military, reflect this very significant progress. The real question that remains is how long Armenia can sustain its abject level of poverty and its isolation for the sake of occupying Azerbaijan’s land. In my reckoning, it is incumbent upon a leadership that represents and cares for its people to do whatever is in their best interests. I submit that Armenia ending this conflict and occupation and subsequently enjoying the benefits of an end to its isolation, is in Armenia’s and its people’s best interests. I look forward to the day when Armenia recognizes this important reality.
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