History of Truth - Armenian Allegations

Interview with Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabeyov.

Q: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused the Minsk Group co-chairing countries of failure in 20 years of negotiations on Karabakh. What is the significance of this?

A: Turkey, which is also a member of the Minsk Group, implies that the co-chairs are just going through the motions of negotiating. This occurs at a time when it is necessary to take a position of principle in compliance with international law and make progress. At the same time Turkey also makes it clear that the borders with Armenia will be opened if progress is made on the Karabakh conflict settlement.

Q: Does Erdogan’s statement mean that Turkey may propose a more effective option for a conflict settlement than the co-chairs have done?

A: I do not think Turkey can propose anything better. Considering that Turkey has no diplomatic relations with Armenia, naturally, it cannot be a mediator. But as a regional superpower it has the right to voice concerns and make claims: if you are mediators, conduct your mission for real rather than go through the motions.

Q: The co-chairs said in response to the accusations that their mandate is restricted and they cannot impose any decision on the sides, because they are just mediators, not arbiters. Does this mean that they are unable to change anything at all in the negotiations?

A: The co-chairing countries are the United States, France and Russia. They can take a position of principle because everyone knows that Armenia continues to occupy Azerbaijani land and does not want to withdraw. They know that Armenia receives material, financial, military and political support from these co-chairing countries and Turkey can also see it.

Q: Do you think Turkey has additional levers of influence on the mediating countries?

A: It certainly has. For example, Turkey may send military supplies to Azerbaijan and say that it will accept Azerbaijan’s decision to use force to liberate its lands.

Q: Turkey is keeping the protocols signed with Armenia up in the air. At the same time in April the US Armenian lobby will raise the issue of the so-called “Armenian genocide” again. Do you think Turkey will ratify these protocols by 24 April?

A: I don't think so. The United States needs too much from Turkey today. Therefore, it is unlikely to take a decision that will cause tension in its relations with Turkey.

Q: In other words, you think that President Obama is unlikely to describe the events of the early 20th century as genocide”?

A: I think the United States will certainly try to encourage Turkey to do something, but a decision that may cause tension in relations with Turkey just at the moment when the US does not need it is highly unlikely. The United States is going to withdraw troops from Iraq in August and Turkey is an overall guarantor of stability in the situation there. Therefore, I think the United States will not benefit from quarreling with Turkey. They could also lose their military base in Incirlik.

Q: Do you think Turkey’s position of principle on Karabakh brings a settlement of the conflict closer?

A: Yes, I do.

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