Turkey is seeking to be a major player in the Caucasus as the larger powers are preoccupied with other priorities, according to analyst Yury Sigov.
“The United States does not have any special options to resolve the Karabakh conflict today. Karabakh is not even a priority in Washington’s foreign policy,” Sigov, a political reviewer and bureau chief of Deloviye Lyudi magazine in Washington, told 1news.az.
He said Turkey was likely to coordinate action with the United States and Russia, which would be beneficial for Turkey and the USA.
“Theoretically, Russia could have filled the initiative vacuum on Karabakh, but everything that has been proposed so far is not viable in my opinion, except for regular meetings of the senior officials of the three states. Therefore, the Americans will be able to tackle the Karabakh issue only in two cases — either after a serious deterioration of the situation in the region (for example, the launch of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh) or a serious deterioration in ties with Iran and inevitably more active intervention of the United States in relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia.”
Commenting on remarks by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US, Russia and France have failed to settle the Karabakh conflict over the past 20 years, he said:
“Mr Erdogan senses that the United States, EU and Russia are occupied with other problems and is trying to make Turkey a key player in the Caucasus. The conditions are in place for this — Turkey is the main link for all energy routes to Europe not only from the Caucasus but also from Iraq and Northern Kurdistan. The Turks want to use the very sensitive energy lever with the EU, which is a most effective tactic. Ankara may also take the initiative on regional conflicts if larger influential countries do not have time for this.
“Yet it is not difficult to criticize and accuse others of inability to settle problems. Let’s see what Turkey can offer on all these issues and what it can do to change the political and economic status quo in the Caucasus.”
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