For the first time since the chaotic collapse of the Ottoman state Turkey showed its goodwill and intention to normalize ties with its Armenian neighbor by signing two protocols last October on the normalization of relations and establishing diplomatic ties.
However, recent developments surrounding the ratification process have halted any sort of normalization and analysts believe this might even worsen the relations between the two countries.
The Armenian diaspora has been very opposed to the protocols and protested against their signing while meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan in early October of last year. The Armenian-American community is now waiting to get good results from a resolution pending before the US House of Representatives, which will voting on the alleged Armenian genocide on March 4. If the resolution passes, Turkish-Armenian relations will become even more tense and the diaspora will be able to prevent any further developments vis-à-vis the protocols.
Speaking to Today’s Zaman, Thomas de Waal, author of the well-read “Black Garden,” a book on the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the two sides have come a long way and if they stop now, they will be wasting a historic opportunity while risking ending up in a worse place than before.
Professor Peter Rutland from Wesleyan University, in his interview with Today’s Zaman, presented Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair’s delivery of the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Feb. 2. “The document included a somewhat alarming prediction,” Rutland said. “Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said. Noting that the statement does not alter US government policy -- which remains committed to the peace process, Rutland said it does reflect concern among some of its analysts about the chances of success.
The primary concern among Turkish officials is the sub-annex that the Armenian Constitutional Court attached to the protocols. The court said the protocols are in line with Article 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence: “The Republic of Armenia stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition of the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s reaction was fury, but mostly involved a discussion with his American counterpart, Hillary Clinton. “What concerns the Constitutional Court of Armenia, I would say, is that the question of genocide is not just a political question for Armenians, but an identity marker -- especially among the Armenian diaspora,” said Vicken Cheterian, author of “War and Peace in the Caucasus: Russia’s Troubled Frontier,”
Warning that relations between the two countries may end up in a worse situation, de Waal suggested it would be useful for both sides to make small steps -- Turkey to reassert its commitment to the protocols and start implementing some of their smaller measures and Armenia to take some small step on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, for example, over Nakhchivan. “Then there will be tangible progress that will sustain the atmosphere of good will,” de Waal asserted.
“Armenians fear that restoring diplomatic relations might mean forgetting what for them is the genocide of 1915; Turks and Azerbaijanis fear that diplomatic ties might mean forgetting the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory,” Rutland said. Building hopeful assumptions on recent negative developments, Rutland said, however, that he does not see anything in the ruling of the Armenian Constitutional Court on Jan. 10 which should prevent the ratification of the protocols.
“Turkey sometimes takes a step forward, and another back. But Ankara has already left the station [its previous position] without reaching the destination [normalizing relations with Yerevan],” Cheterian said, referring to Turkey’s relations with Armenia. “Now, whatever the difficulties -- and they are many,” Cheterian claims, “I think it is too early to say that the process is dead, [and] I think we can expect sudden initiatives, steps forward, as well as setbacks in the coming months.”
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