Interview with Ronald Grigor Suny, Charles Tilly collegiate professor of social and political history at the University of Michigan.
Q: Will Kazakhstan's chairmanship of the OSCE help to bring about a Karabakh settlement?
A: The intractable Karabakh problem cannot be solved without comprise between Armenia (and Karabakh) and Azerbaijan. Neither side is really able to make concessions, given public opinion and the limited legitimacy of the two governments. Therefore, outside powers will decide ultimately, as in the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians, whether there will be a resolution of the conflict.
Kazakhstan might play a positive role as a mediator, but in the final analysis Russia is the key player.
Q: What do you think of Russia's activity on a Karabakh settlement? How sincere are Russia’s efforts?
A: Russia is the most important power, but the question is, does it have positive incentives to settle the issue at this time.
Q: Do you think that the US really is interested in stability in the South Caucasus and a Karabakh settlement?
A: The United States has been weakened in the region after the Russo-Georgian War; Turkey has more pressing issues, as does Iran.
Q: Could Azerbaijan's membership of NATO help to enhance stability in the South Caucasus?
A: Any move of any South Caucasian state toward NATO will be looked upon negatively by Russia and would jeopardize its position in the final resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Russia should consider that settling this issue through compromise (de facto Armenian rule with de jure Azerbaijani sovereignty) would put the issue of NATO on the back burner.
Ronald Grigor Suny is director of the Eisenberg Institute for Historical Studies and Charles Tilly collegiate professor of social and political history at the University of Michigan; he is also emeritus professor of political science and history at the University of Chicago.
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