Interview with Manvel Sargsyan, an expert at the Armenian Centre of Strategic and National Studies.
Q: How would you describe Armenian-Turkish relations today?
A: The initial inclination of Turkey and Armenia to use different prerequisites and preconditions has created a complex situation in the normalization of relations between these countries. In particular, Turkey underestimated the interest of the superpowers in the rapid normalization of relations with Armenia. By binding this process to progress in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Turkey has, in fact, intensified the process of international recognition of the genocide by Western countries, in particular, the United States. In addition, it has faced demands from the EU to withdraw its troops from Northern Cyprus.
In fact, the claims set before the world community on Nagorno-Karabakh caused claims to be made in response on Turkey. As a result, Turkey is facing a difficult choice: either to continue setting prerequisites to Armenia and facing pressure from the superpowers in response or to give up on its prerequisites. Turkey seems not to have taken a final decision yet. Armenia has no special problems with the conditions. Parliament has started ratification of the protocols and it will probably ratify them without their ratification by the Turkish parliament.
Q: Do you think the Armenian-Turkish border will open this year? May Turkey improve ties with Armenia, ignoring Azerbaijan’s interests?
A: The development of Armenian-Turkish relations is becoming more dependent on the logic of the overall development of political processes in the region and the world. Turkey’s choice will be dictated more by the influence of Turkish relations with the superpowers than the impact of Azerbaijan’s problems. If problems that outweigh the problems of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations emerge inside and around Turkey, Turkey will be obliged to take decisions that bypass Azerbaijan’s interest. We should take into account the fact that US policy on Iran is leading to an extreme situation in the Middle East.
Certainly, all the countries of the region will have to voice their attitude to this situation and take a stance. These positions will affect Armenian-Turkish relations. In the end, the open border between Turkey and Armenia is not just a reflection of the interests of the two neighbouring countries. Its geopolitical meaning is also transparent. Therefore, the opening of this border can be expected any minute because the narrow interests of Armenia and Turkey do not play the most decisive role here. The interests and predominant processes in the region have changed too much, causing changes in the room for freedom of manoeuvre of each country in the region.
Q: Do you expect any progress in the Karabakh settlement in the near future?
A: The state of diplomacy on the Karabakh conflict settlement is currently unclear. Azerbaijan and Armenia have treated the proposals made by Russia at the recent presidential meeting in Sochi differently. It was suggested that the conflict parties present within two weeks their proposals on issues of difference. Against this background, instead of presenting its proposals the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has reported that it agrees with the updated Madrid principles. Therefore, Russia’s proposal to introduce new paragraphs to the text has been rejected.
As opposed to this, the Armenian Foreign Ministry reported that it would make its proposals and the negotiations would continue when Azerbaijan proposed its position on the points of difference under the Sochi agreements. It means that Armenia has supported Russia’s new initiatives. The threat of a split has emerged as a result of these different approaches to the diplomatic process. It is clear that it will be difficult to overcome the situation. The mediators’ decision seems to be crucial in overcoming the emerging difficulties. Yet, there are no signs that the mediators have already expressed their attitude to the situation. This means that another stage of stagnation in negotiations is possible.
Q: Do you think it realistic that Azerbaijanis and Armenians can live together, if the conflict is settled?
A: Historically, there have been numerous conflicts between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
Peaceful life together has been restored only when mechanisms to curb mutual claims have appeared. Anyway, both peoples should come to a single scale for the assessment of justice. Every people understands the concept of a “fair solution” differently. It is time to review the current state of affairs and recognize each other’s rights. Peaceful life together is impossible or possible when peoples are suppressed by third powers.
A similar situation existed in the Soviet period. This situation does not ensure lasting peace. The conflicting people should learn to conduct direct negotiations without any prerequisites, as it might improve the climate of relations.
News.Az
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