Interview with Nuh Yilmaz, director of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) in Washington, DC.
Q: What is the current state of the Turkish-Armenian negotiations on the normalization of relations?
A: The tension caused by the signing of the protocol agreement is gradually increasing as the date 24 April approaches [the day that Armenia commemorates what it calls the genocide]. It is no secret that the Turkish leadership does not feel positive about House Resolution 252 [on the Armenian genocide]. Even though the normalization process and the resolution are indirectly connected, House Foreign Committee Chairman Howard Berman’s call for a vote on the resolution on 4 March does not help solve any problem, on the contrary, it unnecessarily complicates the already complex issue. If 4 March and 24 April are taken as deadlines for the normalization process, I do not think this will help normalization.
Q: Do you expect the protocols on the normalization of relations to be ratified by the Armenian and Turkish parliaments?
A: For the Armenians, after the decision made by the Constitutional Court, ratifying the protocols is only a formality. However, for
Turkey, it is virtually impossible for any political party or leader to get the protocols ratified by parliament under these circumstances. To expect a move from the Turkish leadership would require a gesture on two fronts: an improvement in the Armenian-Azeri negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and a show of goodwill from the US Administration on HR252. If these do not happen, the Turkish parliament is not likely to ratify the protocols right now.
Q: Is Turkey strong enough to overcome the pressure from the USA and EU to open its borders with Armenia?
A: I do not agree with you that it is about strength. It could be said that Turkey is under pressure from the different partners who helped the protocols come into being, but this whole process requires moves from all sides. As long as Turkey sees its counterparts doing their part, Turkey certainly will be responsive. Turkey was expecting certain gains from these protocols. However, now Turkish policymakers, whether right or wrong, think that the gains they were expecting from the protocols are nullified because of the Constitutional Court’s decision. If Turkey is assured that its gains will be guaranteed somehow, then the process will continue.
Q: Do you believe that the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and opening of the borders will expedite settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
A: I do not see these problems as separated and isolated issues. Normalization certainly would help the whole region relax, take a deep breath and work toward enrichment on the economic front, but normalization is not an aim, rather it is an expected outcome; it is more important how the frozen conflicts and century-old-rivalries will end or at least become matters of the past. Presently, the reverse can be said: improvement, if not a solution, on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue will certainly help the Turkish-Armenian normalization process.
Q: Many experts think that settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict depends on Russia’s good will. Do you agree? If so, what should Azerbaijan do to ensure a fast resolution of the conflict, considering that Armenia is Russia's closest strategic and military ally?
A: I do not think that any related country moves solely out of good will. Moreover, I do think that all of the related parties can ruin the process. Russia is not an exception in having such power. Therefore, your analysis does partly reflect the situation. All related parties have expectations. If those expectations are met, then the settlement will come. For Russia, I think they want to see their strategic ally breathe after the Georgian war. And also I do believe that they may welcome the souring of relations between Azeris and Turks, which would help them achieve their projects in the South Caucasus regarding the market for energy pipelines. All countries have an interest in the issue, but if they all agree that stability in the Caucasus helps their cause, then they will all work for a peaceful settlement.
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