Interview with Stepan Grigoryan, head of Armenian think-tank the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation.
Q: How would you comment on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s speeches during his visit to Great Britain?
A: You are probably thinking of the president’s speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). I think the speech clearly sets out the position of the current leadership of the country on two important international issues:
1. Readiness to normalize relations with Turkey without prerequisites. In the case of the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols this means the recognition of the current Armenian-Turkish border and a temporary “freeze” on the process of international recognition of the Armenian genocide committed in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 (this position is extremely close to the policy of Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan).
2. Unwillingness to make serious concessions on the Karabakh issue. Indeed, Serzh Sargsyan focused on the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh has never been part of independent Azerbaijan and that it was included in Azerbaijan by decision of the party body of the Soviet Union, that Azerbaijan has exhausted reserves of trust in relation to the existence of national autonomies within it (he cited the example of the Nakhchivan autonomy where there is not a single Armenian) and the fact that today Nagorno-Karabakh is a formed state with its institutions. All these views completely coincide with the position of official Yerevan during the presidency of Robert Kocharyan.
I would like to say that the position on Karabakh of the current Armenian authorities can be explained both by the rigidity of Azerbaijan’s position in the negotiations and by the fact that in conditions of weak legitimacy it would be extremely difficult and risky for our authorities to make concessions in two areas: Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani. We should also take into account the fact that public sentiments in Armenia show a greater interest in options for “freezing” the Karabakh conflict and not the risky options for a conflict settlement, including concessions and compromises with Azerbaijan.
We believe the resolution of the Karabakh conflict depends on many factors, both external and internal, therefore, one should not hope for a quick result, not least because of the high level of distrust in Armenian and Azerbaijani society. In addition, there is an impression that not all “external” players are interested in the resolution of the conflict as soon as possible, that is, they understand that they can lose the last “lever” of influence on Azerbaijan.
I would also like to say that despite serious differences in the positions of the parties and the impossibility of the imminent signing of a comprehensive peace treaty, the signing of a framework agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not ruled out in the coming months. The agreement could be based on the updated Madrid principles that contain all the elements concerning all parties of the conflict. So quite significant progress could be made in the negotiating process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Q: The Armenian-Turkish protocols have been sent to the Armenian parliament. What will be the next step?
A: I think the Armenian-Turkish protocols will be ratified by the National Assembly of Armenia in the next two to three weeks. I would like to say that in November last year we drew the attention of the Armenian authorities and public to the fact that Armenia must ratify the protocols without delay in order to show the world that it is a predictable and reliable partner that fulfills its obligations. Albeit with a delay, the Armenian leadership and the political elite have realized this.
Q: The Armenian side says that it will ratify the protocols only after the relevant decision by the Turkish parliament. In turn, the Turkish side has repeatedly said that it will never normalize ties without progress on Karabakh. Doesn’t this mean that the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has entered deadlock?
A: The process of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols may be protracted, but I do not think that it will enter deadlock or be frustrated. Turkey’s foreign policy has experienced significant changes in the past few years. Thus, Turkey has recognized the interests of Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus, started dialogue with Syria, signed gas contracts with Iran, recognized Kosovo’s independence and provides serious support to Abkhazia. This list is long. Thus, the normalization of relations with Armenia fully complies with the new foreign policy of Turkey.
Indeed, it is impossible to take into account the interests of Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus, wish to raise one’s role in the region and, at the same time, keep the border with Armenia closed. This means that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has objective grounds.
Q: Do you think the Armenian-Turkish border will be opened soon?
A: It is necessary to separate the two processes: the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and ratification of the protocols. I am sure that the Armenian-Turkish protocols will be ratified even with delays. As for the working regime of the Armenian-Turkish border, much here will depend on the dynamics of the Karabakh conflict settlement, despite the fact that the protocols fix the terms for the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border when they are ratified.
Q: The OSCE chairman-in-office, Kazakh Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev, has visited the region. What can Kazakhstan’s role be in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict? Do you expect achievements during its chairmanship?
A: The country chairing the OSCE sets its priorities for its chairmanship. In this case, Kazakhstan cited the Karabakh conflict settlement as one of its priorities. In this context the visit of the OSCE chairman-in-office to the region to learn the positions of the conflict parties is quite clear and motivated. As for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Kanat Saudabayev said: “As the chairing country, we are working on a ‘roadmap’ to support efforts aimed at the establishment of peace between the conflict parties.” As Armenia and Azerbaijan enjoy quite good trust with Kazakhstan, the initiatives of the Kazakh leadership may put a new complexion on the negotiating process on a Karabakh settlement.
News.Az
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