Interview with Shale Horowitz, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Q: Do you believe that chairmanship of Kazakhstan in OSCE will be successful for Karabakh settlement?
A: No.
Q: Turkey has its own problems with Armenia. Do you think that Turkey is able to succeed in attempts to solve the Karabakh problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A: No. Outside mediation by those not directly involved is largely irrelevant as long as Armenia and Azerbaijan remain apart on the fundamental issue of sovereignty over all or most of Karabakh. Only significant concessions on Karabakh's status by Armenia, Azerbaijan, or both will make a peace settlement possible, and neither side looks likely to make such concessions.
Q: Do you think that the right to self-determination can justify separatism and occupation by use of force, mass killing and ethnic cleanings, as was the case in Karabakh?
A: Everyone must answer this question for themselves. After the fighting is over, it is never worth it for the losers, whereas the winners can often justify it. But remember that both leaderships decided to fight in the beginning, before they knew the outcome for certain.
Q: And what do you think about activity of Russia in Karabakh settlement? How sincere these Russia’s efforts are?
A: It is possible that Russia could benefit from a peace settlement. But Russia will not force Armenia to make the fundamental concessions, because this would weaken and alienate a close and loyal ally.
Q: Do you think that US really interested in stability in the South Caucasus and Karabakh settlement in particular or all these problems are closer to Russia as a neighbor of this region?
A: The US has little leverage except carrots like aid and investment. These are not significant enough to affect the calculations of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
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