It is Azerbaijan that has gained from the Turkey-Armenia protocols, not Armenia, according to political scientist Vugar Seidov.
Seidov, who is also the correspondent in Germany for Azerbaijan's state-run news agency AzerTAj, disagreed with remarks made yesterday by Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Centre for National and International Studies.
Seidov accused the Armenian political scientist of trying "to discern victory in obvious defeat”.
Giragosian said that Armenia had gained two specific victories in the Turkey rapprochement process: the deterioration in relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey; and the omission of any mention of Karabakh from the protocols.
He said that Russia, the United States and Europe had told Turkey that the normalization of relations with Armenia and resolution of the Karabakh conflict were two separate issues, but Seidov said this was the other way around.
“Let’s look at what we had before the signing of the protocols and what we have today. Before the protocols, we had the closed Armenian-Turkish border, frozen negotiations on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, friendly Azerbaijani-Turkish relations without a clear picture of the future position of Ankara on the Armenian-Turkish border issue and, finally, low gas tariffs. Now, let’s see what we have today mostly thanks to the protocols: the Armenian-Turkish border is still closed; the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations have intensified, which is bothering Yerevan; the fraternal relations between the Azerbaijani and Turkish people have strengthened, thanks to numerous senior Turkish officials commenting on the impossibility of opening the borders without progress in the Karabakh conflict, which was unheard of before the protocols; and Baku has doubled gas tariffs, which in turn has forced Ankara to increase its prices.
"Has Azerbaijan benefited? Certainly, it has: the border is closed, the Karabakh process has intensified, friendship with Turkey whose leaders started to make promises more frequently than before has strengthened and gas revenues have grown. Has Turkey lost? It has lost almost nothing. Moreover, it has boosted its relations with Russia and raised its role in the South Caucasus, which can be seen in the discussions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict between Turkish and world leaders in Washington, Moscow, Paris and Brussels. Has Armenia won? I don't see any dividend. On the contrary, the protocols have spoiled relations with the diaspora and worsened the split inside the country, while failing to reach the main goal of opening borders."
The United States, Russia and Europe can deny a link between the opening of the border and Karabakh, but Turkey’s opinion carries more weight, as it is Turkey that will open the borders, Seidov said.
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