Interview with Vafa Guluzade, former state adviser on foreign policy issues and president of the Fund of political studies of Caspian states.
Q: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan hurries Turkey to ratify the Armenian-Turkish protocols on normalizing relations, threatening to withdraw Yerevan’s signatures under these documents. How would you comment on this situation?
A: I think the policy of blackmail is used against Turkey. The United States blackmail Turkey saying if it doesn’t open border with Armenia, the US Congress will recognize the so-called “Armenian Genocide” by the Ottoman Empire. This is a pure blackmail, because no Congress or parliament have a right to take decisions on historical events due to their incompetence. In this case Armenia’s policy consists of the following components. First, Armenia does not want to discuss the issue of “genocide” because it does not want to query these events. Second, it does not want to recognize the territorial integrity of Turkey. And third, it demands from Turkey to ratify the signed protocols. This brings the thought that Armenia and Russia do not want these borders to open. But they want to accuse Turkey, set it in an awkward state both diplomatically and politically, that is to accuse Turkey of the failure to fulfilled the assumed obligations and ratify the signed protocols. However, it was Armenia that created all conditions for Turkey not to ratify these protocols.
Q: Armenian president also said that if Baku’s pressure does not allow Ankara to ratify the protocols, nothing prevents the Turkish executive powers to open the closed border of Armenia before ratification of protocols. Do you think Turkey may take this step?
A: The very formulation of Turkey’s inability to ratify the protocols under Azerbaijan’s pressure is absolutely false. Turkey is quite a strong and powerful regional superpower that can ignore Azerbaijan’s opinion if its national interests demand this. But West wants to put Turkey on its knees before Armenia and thus cause negative events in Turkey that may hit this country and split the Turkish public, simultaneously parting Azerbaijan from Turkey to put these countries into dependence on enemies. In the reality, this is what they want from Turkey. The borders between Turkey and Armenia are de-facto open. We know that places are flying and there is a bus communication, while Armenian citizens can go to Turkey for work and rest. This is the reality. Thus, such statements are just a pressure to put Turkey on its knees. This is the part of the Christian-Muslim confrontation that started after the USSR collapse. You see, the Cyprus problem is not settled because Cypriot Greeks do not want to see Cypriot Turks to be equal to them. They want them to be second category citizens. Meanwhile, the Turkish citizens of Cyprus cannot take this for normal. Greeks want to drive Turks out of the Cyprus since all these problems started after Cyprus was annexed by Greece and these trends continue. The last time when Cypriot Turks agreed to be within Cyprus and join the EU, Greeks rejected this and joined the EU themselves leaving Turks outboard. The same occurs in relation to the whole Muslim world.
Q: The internal political situation in Turkey is not easy connected with bringing the military leadership of this country to responsibility for the alleged preparation of coup. What do you think about the events?
A: I do not believe that the military forces of this country were preparing a state coup. This game that causes a split in the Turkish society, has been made up by external forces that are playing on the Turkish political arena since the Turkish army has always had a mission and unless there was the Soviet Union, the army positions in Turkey have always been very strong. After the USSR collapse the statements “Why do we need Turkey in NATO, this is a Muslim state”. NATO and the European Union are Christian clubs while now there is Muslim Turkey. Turkey has fulfilled the role of West’s shield during the nuclear confrontation between the USA and USSR. Meanwhile, now Turkey that has bore these tensions for long is not needed. Therefore, pragmatic West thinks “why should we deal with Turkey”. There are already plans about how to cause a split in Turkey, how to create a Kurdish state there and how to pass a part of its territory to Armenia.
Q: Considering the current strained internal political situation in Turkey, will this country be able to sustain West’s pressure and not to take rapprochement with Armenia?
A: I think Turkey will cope with it. If it does not cope with the Armenia issue, the processes in this country will worsen. Turkey must stand. Like Premier Erdogan said, Turkey is quite a strong and powerful regional superpower and it is ready to stand any pressure. Turkey must demand fair execution of provisions of the signed protocols by Armenia. In particular, Armenia should disavow its territorial claims, changing its Constitution. However, instead of it Armenia has already adopted the decision of its Constitutional Court, which makes the ratification of these protocols by Turkey impossible. Armenia should annul this decision. In addition it should make a goodwill gesture releasing the occupied Azerbaijani lands. But it does not want to do so. West supports Armenia. Like it supports Greece in the issue of Cyprus, the same way he supports Armenia in the issue of occupied Azerbaijani lands. The issue is clear here. Let’s view the US conduct in this view. What right does the US have to provide material support to the separatist regime of Nagorno Karabakh. The political side of this issue is rather more important than the fact of granting some $8 mln to the regime. It turns out that the leading superpower supports separatism against Azerbaijan. America could also support Basks, Corsicans or Irish separatists to see how Europe would react. Before our eyes Americans conduct the policy against Turkey and against Azerbaijan.
Q: What is the possibility of that the US President will not call the events in Turkey as the “Armenian genocide” in his traditional speech of April 24?
A: I think he will not call this genocide. If he does, Turkey will leave NATO. But first Turkey will put an end to the US bases in its territory, including Injirlik base. Then Turkey will launch search of new regional partners which will lead to its Iranian rapprochement. It will also launch contacts with Russia targeting the United States. Therefore, Barack Obama should think over this. Now, Iran has Syria and Lebanon’s support in the Middle East. This thoughtless step of the US government will promote Turkey’s participation in this bloc. By the way, Azerbaijan will also join this bloc in such a case, because it will follow Turkey.
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