As I can remember we are watching the same movie over and over again.
The only difference is that with each passing year the intensity increases.
A whole year Washington and Ankara are getting along very well but come March storm clouds start forming. And by April the storm turns into a hurricane. The reason each time is the Armenians proposing the genocide resolution to Congress.
Lobbies start taking action, messages full of mutual threats and hidden blackmail start going back and forth creating an extremely offensive atmosphere.
Just like yesterday, first they vote during the committee meeting and when the resolution passes it comes before the House of Representatives and the tone of the dispute increases.
This chaos usually subsides when Washington starts watching Ankara.
But during this process Ankara usually owes Washington a favor. And without even noticing it comes to a point where it needs to make sacrifices in many issues that are not written anywhere and is just considered a payoff. In summary, relations between Turkey and the United States are hurt unnecessarily. And then everybody forgets about it as if nothing has happened and everybody continues on down the path.
In the past this accident would happen in an anticipated way and relations would not be hurt this much.
In recent years the situation changed.
The Armenians having gained self-confidence from the international public are able to pressure even further. And Washington’s resistance toward the Armenian pressure weakens with each passing day. It becomes hard for Ankara to escape the noose.
This time difficulties stir from Obama.
When moving into the White House he made a promise to the Armenians. He accepted genocide. And just because he wanted to get rid of this promise and not lose Turkey he came to Ankara to start the protocol process with Armenia. But that didn’t work either.
What we experienced yesterday was a rerun of the genocide movie. But let’s not forget that this movie will constantly keep running at theaters.
In periods ahead of us pressure will increase. If we can’t change anything the genocide will pass the U.S. Congress. Then let’s try and sort it out.
It’ll be best if we are realistic and try to implement the protocol with Armenia. And let’s also find a way to convince Baku. Let’s tell our Azerbaijani friends that hurting relations between Turkey and Armenia won’t do any good.
US might lose its place in Turkey to Russia
There are some relations that look good on paper. And especially if the United States appear on one end of the relationship it is even better. A “strategic partnership” with the only super power in the world is not predestined for every capital city.
This is how colorful relations between Turkey and the United States are. There are such different and effective mechanisms/tools in the hand of a super power that it enchants you. You become even more proud when your president is pat on the back. And the breathtaking military power makes you dizzy. Then even if it does not reflect reality the sound of a “strategic partnership” pleases you.
But then there is the other side to the coin.
You take a look inside this relationship and ask, “How much do I benefit from this?” You take a look on the commercial side of the relationship with the United States. Then you realize that despite all the noise and diversity the trade volume with the richest country in the world does not exceed $15 billion.
This is a fairly small amount for Turkey that has a trade volume of $100 billion. Then you take a look at your trade volume with your closest neighbor Russia only to realize a trade volume that exceeds $35 billion increasing toward $50 billion and ask yourself, “Which one is more valuable and a real partnership?”
Which would be more persistent? Is it the one existing on paper with the slogan “strategic partnership” progressively becoming irrelevant or the one amounting to $50 billion to $100 billion?
Here I am not comparing the value of relations with the United States versus Russia. Of course there are important differences between Russia’s from time to time remittent attitude and the U.S.’s consistent approach and position in the world.
But we do need to pay attention to the concrete side of this matter. Some day the relationship between Turkey and the U.S. worth $15 billion might increase to $50 billion and be overshadowed by the Turkish-Russian trade from who we cover 70 percent of our energy need.
This of course is in the long run the most important threat in relations between Turkey and the U.S. Obama must have noticed the situation because he gave directives to form a special team in order to focus on trade relations. But there is no progress there as of yet.
We may say that in the future relations will be stretched even further if we add to all this Washington’s attitude giving the impression of not caring much about the Turkish public in sensitive matters like the Armenian genocide and insufficient support in the elimination of the PKK from northern Iraq.
The United States glorifies the importance or our relationship and pats us on the back but now its time to see some deeds. Or else we will some day find Russia closer to us even if we don’t call it a strategic partnership.
Mehmet Ali Birand/Hurriyet Daily News
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