"Armenian Genocide" Resolution and the fate of Nabucco

Tuesday, 09 March 2010 10:09

Two separate developments took place last Thursday at approximately the same time which, at first sight, seemed totally unrelated.

Indeed, the fact that the Turkish Parliament’s ratification of the intergovernmental agreement on the Nabucco project was followed by the adoption of the resolution based on the Armenians’ claims of genocide by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States House of Representatives was a pure coincidence.

Yet you can be sure that both developments that took place in two capitals, thousands of miles away from each other, were monitored with the highest interest in several capitals, like Vienna, Budapest, Rome, Baku and Moscow. Because Turkish-Armenian relations and the issue of the recognition of the 1915 killings of Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans as genocide play an important role in the fate of the Nabucco project, at least in the short term.

While none of the involved parties would accept, there is a clear race to build the next major pipeline that will carry natural gas to Europe. In the long run, Europe’s future energy needs might require having both of the major pipelines that are now on the agenda. Yet in the short and middle run, the outcome of the race will affect the dominance of the European energy supply by Russia.

If the Nabucco project, designed to bring Caspian as well as Middle Eastern natural gas to Europe via Turkey and the Balkans is realized sooner rather than later, it will reduce European dependence on Russia, striking a blow against Russia’s dominant position in the European market.

Yet if the South Stream project, which will carry Russian gas under the Black Sea to Europe, is realized before the Nabucco project, then Moscow could take a deep breath.

Turkey’s ratification of the Nabucco agreement is expected to be followed by Romania very soon, and thus, the ratification process of the agreement will be completed. One of the next major steps is the transit agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which in the short run will be the major supplier.

Yet this is where the “Armenian” issue makes its entrance to the process. It is no secret that Baku is extremely anxious about the prospect of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia before there is a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is under Armenian occupation.

Even an interim agreement between Baku and Yerevan on Armenian withdrawal from Azeri territories surrounding the Karabakh region does not seem in sight. And Turkey does not want to pass the normalization protocols through the Parliament unless there is some kind of progress on the Karabakh issue.

The Armenian resolution is lingering above its head and April 24, the day Armenians want the U.S. president to make a “genocide statement” is nearing. Yet it is obvious the ruling Justice and Development Party will not send the protocols to the Parliament under these circumstances unless a small-scale miracle takes place in the talks between Baku and Yerevan.

Baku has so far refrained from fully committing itself to the Nabucco project. It wants to be sure that Turkey will not open its borders to Armenia before there is progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.

So the current imbroglio is delaying the transit deal between Turkey and Azerbaijan and thus slowing down the Nabucco project. But how long can Ankara and Baku afford to wait before finalizing a deal?

Ironically, maybe a major leap forward in the realization of the South Stream project might provide the incentive to move ahead on Nabucco.

Barcin Yinanc/Hurriyet Daily News