Congress decision on so called Armenian genocide to 'affect' Karabakh process

Interview with Yusif Babanli, board member of the Azerbaijani American Council (AAC).

Q: The US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee adopted a resolution recognizing the killings of Armenians in 1915 as 'genocide' with 23 votes for and 22 votes against. How would you comment on this decision?

A: Since 2008, the Armenians have been persistent and increased the pressure on legislators after they were disappointed in their hope that the then newly elected President Obama would formally recognize the so-called Armenian genocide. The emergence of a president who was firm on acknowledging the events of 1915 as genocide was one of the greatest hopes of the Armenian diaspora. Since 2007, it has been expected that the US House Foreign Affairs Committee will annually approve the motion and endorse the resolution, passing it on to the floor of the House. The strategic plan of the Armenian lobby is to reach out to those congressmen who are members of this committee, ensuring that the process goes through the first stage. The committee includes very pro-Armenian congressmen such as Howard Berman, Brad Sherman, Dana Rohrabacher, Barbara Lee and Gary Ackerman. In 2007, the Armenians achieved the same results in a 27 to 21 committee vote in favour of the resolution. So, I think although the gap between those congressmen voting in favour and those voting against is smaller this year, the efforts of the Turkish diaspora and the Turkish government were not enough last year, although they were pretty effective on all other fronts and initiatives. Another interesting fact is that one of the friends of the Turkish community - Sheila Jackson Lee (TX) - abstained, thus increasing the chances of the bill making it to the House floor.
In any case, before the bill H-252 is voted on, we will see many developments, especially reactions from the Turkish government and Obama Administration. More than just reaching out to the legislators in the months preceding this important hearing, Armenian lobby groups tried to dramatize the whole hearing before the committee and media by pulling three elderly Armenians presented as 'genocide' survivors from the offices of elected officials to hearings of this nature. However, the sad reality is that when the members of the committee who voted against the endorsement and administrations try to prevent the bill from passing, they hint at the importance of Turkey as a NATO ally and strategic partner in the Middle East, but do not mention the sad past of Turkey and Azerbaijan, where nearly two million Anatolian and Azerbaijani Turks were massacred by Armenian bands and guerrillas in the early 20th century. It is imperative that the Turkish government produces and disseminates more material on the fate of Turks that died at the hands of Dashnaks and Hnchaks, thus presenting the much needed facts before the US media and legislators.

Q: What is the possibility of recognition of the 'genocide' by Congress as a whole?

A: I’d like to reiterate that the possibility of the Congress recognizing the so-called genocide is always high and will always be high. As long as the Armenian community actively participates in American socio-political life, this danger will never fade away. In parallel to just befriending the US legislators, the Armenian diaspora also actively promotes future legislators of Armenian descent which is likely to make it even harder to contain the efforts of the Armenian lobby to get this bill passed, unless their efforts are countered by Turkish and Azerbaijani diaspora. Luckily, both Turkish and Azerbaijani diaspora have become more active in the past few years and more and more Azerbaijani and Turkish Americans are involved in socio-political life on the local and national levels. At this stage, I don’t think the bill will pass because of the nature of US-Turkey relations and the current situation in the war on terror and conflict in the Middle East. By passing this bill, the United States is likely to alienate Turkey, which would readily turn its back on the US and open links with states such as Iran and Syria with which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has already established intimate ties. Not only could this jeopardize US positions and its progress in Afghanistan and Iraq but it would further destabilize the overall situation in the Middle East. That’s what the AKP is banking on as an option. Unfortunately, not many congressmen who actively and semi-actively support the 'Armenian genocide' resolution realize this immediate danger. Stopping these possible developments will require much effort from the US administration, both through direct contact with the legislators and speaking out on the issue in the media, just as the Bush Administration did.

Q: There is an opinion that the White House is against worsening relations with Turkey, so it is against adopting the genocide resolution. What role does the president’s position play in this?

A: Worsening relations with Turkey is the last thing President Obama wants. With Obama’s peaceful agenda to advance US foreign policy in the Muslim world and end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan by emerging as a winner with fewer casualties and financial losses, it is necessary for the Obama Administration not to restrict Turkey as one of its strategic allies in the region. Barack Obama knows that recognition of the so-called genocide would not only worsen US-Turkey relations, but would also help to transform Turkey. It is no secret that if the bill is passed, the nationalist faction of Turks will unite with the religious faction and support the incumbent AKP administration which, apart from partnering the West, also looks to the East and wants to be a leader in the Muslim world. Moreover, the passage of the resolution could also lead to the breaking of contracts with US defence firms on the sale of billions of dollars worth of arms to Turkey. President Obama who limited his earlier promises as senator to recognize the 'Armenian Genocide' to using the term Metz Yeghern ('great calamity' in Armenian) in 2008, should come forward and show his support for Turkey and reiterate America’s commitment to strategic partnership with Turkey. This is a good chance for the administration to continue the diplomatic overtures that started when Obama came to office. We hope that sound moves from the White House will prevent this resolution from passing and leave the matter to historians.

Q: Turkey recalled its ambassador Namik Tan from the United States on Thursday. What else can Turkey do to influence the Congress decision?

A: In my opinion, Turkey will make apparent moves to indicate its readiness to take uncompromising 'good will' actions with regard to states like Syria, Iran and Russia and/or further worsen its relations with Israel. Turkey might also possibly make amendments to its agreements with the US on the Incirlik base as well as revise its strategy on the war on terror. Of course, these are not immediate actions many would expect from Turkey, but the fact that the AKP has made some bold moves (especially towards its ally Israel) in the past year or so may signal its hardcore commitment to its agenda. And again, taking into consideration the sensitivity of the 'genocide' accusations for ordinary Turks, the recognition of the so-called genocide by the US Congress would trigger a 'united we stand' stance from the Turkish public in support of counter-actions by the AKP.

Q: How might the decision of the House of Representatives affect the Karabakh settlement?

A: That’s one of the major negative effects of this resolution. If the bill passes, it will make Armenia bold in its no-compromise stance on the Karabakh conflict. In the long run, it will give more reasons to the Armenians to justify their occupation of Azerbaijani territory; they will base their irredentist claims on their alleged fear of suppression and 'new genocide' by (Azerbaijani) Turks. For decades now, they have portrayed the military offensive and ethnic cleansing of Karabakh from its ethnic Azerbaijani population as a consequence of the so-called 'Sumgayit pogroms', 'Kirovobad pogroms', 'Baku pogroms' deliberately relating them to their past, while at the same time forgetting about the murder and mass exodus of Azeris from Armenia starting in November 1987. On the other hand, this may also push Turkey to deeper involvement and persistence on the Karabakh conflict. On 5 March, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu already called upon the US to clarify its position on the Karabakh conflict and Azerbaijani-Armenian reconciliation while speaking about the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenian troops.

Yusif Babanli is a board member of the Azerbaijani American Council (AAC), co-founder of the US Azeris Network (USAN) and corporate secretary and director (South region).

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