US President Barack Obama is caught in a trap in between Turkey, the US’s close ally, and the strong Armenian lobby back home. Turkey expects some sort of apology from Obama due to the adoption of a resolution by the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs recognizing events in 1915 under Ottoman rule as genocide of Armenians.
Obama recognized the 1915 killings of Armenians as genocide during his election campaign. But he refrained from using the word “genocide” during his April 24 speech last year to give a chance to the normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia, as the two countries signed protocols in October of last year. But the protocols have not been put into force, as Turkey set a precondition for the protocols to be adopted in its parliament: that a process start toward a solution on Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azerbaijani enclave populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.
The failure of the protocols has played into the hands of the strong Armenian lobby within the US, culminating with the adoption on March 4 of a resolution by the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs recognizing the 1915 events as genocide. But the fact that protocols have not been put into force has also weakened President Obama’s hand in safeguarding Turkey against the Armenian lobby, which is particularly strong among the Democratic Party, of which Obama is a member. At the moment it is not yet clear whether the US House of Representatives will vote on the resolution adopted by the committee. If it comes to the full House floor, it will be on April 24, the day when Armenians commemorate the genocide. And if it is comes to a full House vote, the House is expected to endorse the resolution.
This is not a situation desired by Turkey, and it would have negative repercussions on the two NATO allies’ relationship, complicating their regional cooperation such as on Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the US’s use of Turkey’s İncirlik Air Base in the south for its operations in the region.
Turkey, in the meantime, will lose considerable US support in its fight against terrorism. Turkish Foreign Ministry officials confirmed recently that massive operations launched against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Europe have come as a result of a US diplomatic initiative that has been under way for several years. US support of Turkey in its fight against the PKK is mainly because Washington needs a reliable ally in this problematic region. A more stable Turkey will better serve US interests in the region while stability will be highly beneficial for Turkey itself.
Therefore, more important for Turkey than whether genocide allegations will come to the US House of Representatives floor is a letter to be written by Obama to his Turkish counterpart that saying something along the lines that the Washington administration is sorry about the adoption of a genocide resolution in the committee. US government support of Turkey against the genocide allegations is crucial.
This letter will also be a guarantee that Obama will not utter the word “genocide” in his annual statement on April 24.
Obama’s use of the word genocide would be more damaging than the adoption of a resolution by the House. According to a US diplomat, in such a case Turkish-US relations would suffer a serious blow.
Obama has a difficult choice and is caught in a trap. On the one hand, he cannot lose NATO ally Turkey, while on the other, he cannot resist the strong Armenian lobby as the November congressional elections are getting close.
The Turkish government should have worked harder to get the protocols with Armenia adopted in Parliament to increase its leverage against the Armenian diaspora. But this did not happen. However, the protocols are still there, provided that Ankara does not unilaterally cancel them. This will not only damage Turkish-US relations but will also have wider implications in an already-fragile Caucasus.
Lale Kemal/Today's Zaman
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