HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

Q: It seems that US has been playing a less active role at the post-soviet area after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. Do you agree with this? And what was the result of this war for the West?

A: Yes, I think this is correct – the reason is the Obama administration’s effort to “reset” relations with Russia. The Georgia war was considered very embarrassing and ill-advised, and of course it further strained US-Russian relations.

Q: US and Russia are the main mediators in the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Are they really able to cooperate in solving of this conflict?

A: I cannot comment on this question. My only impression is that the role of Turkey – and US as well as Russian efforts to strengthen relations with Turkey – are really the key factor.

Q: How could you comment an opinion that Russia (which is afraid of close cooperation between Azerbaijan from one side and EU and NATO from the other side) is not interested in Karabakh settlement?

A: There may be some truth to this, in the sense that while both countries are in conflict, each of them remains more dependent on good relations with Russia. But again, this is not a topic I follow closely.

Q: Turkey has been playing very active role during last two years trying to bring peace and stability to the South Caucasus. Do you believe in success of this mission and is it in the interest of the US and Russia?

A: I suspect that Turkey can indeed powerfully promote stability by reconciliation with Armenia. Ultimately I do believe that such stability is in the interests of all regional and global actors.

Q: Iran proposes its mediatory in resolving of Karabakh conflict. How could you estimate the potential role of Iran in establishing the peace and stability in the region?

A: I am deeply skeptical that Iran can – or even wishes to – promote peace and stability in the region. Rather, Iran’s major concern is to break out of its relative isolation, and thereby to increase its potential integration in global FDI and energy markets. However, in my opinion the outcome of Iran’s greater role would be a decrease in regional and global security, because of the Iranian regime’s rejection of key international norms and institutions.

Q: Do you believe in possibility of new war in the Caspian region (for example between Russia and Georgia or Azerbaijan and Armenia or US invasion against Iran)?

A: Possible? Yes. Likely? No. I think Georgia has learned a painful lesson, and that Russia has also learned that it’s aggressive reaction was not successful diplomatically. Azerbaijan and Armenia have no incentive to fight again, and in fact both have much to lose from another conflict. And at least while Obama is president, the US will not undertake unilateral military action against Iran – unless Iran does something extremely reckless (which I also believe is unlikely).