Interview with Paul Kubicek, chair of the Department of Political Science, Oakland University, Michigan.
Q: What are the main threats to stability in the South Caucasus and to the region’s integration into Europe?
A: There remain numerous sources of instability in the region, not the least of which is the situation in Georgia and the uncertainty about the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While I would not expect Georgia to attack the Russian positions, I do not think the international community will recognize the independence of these regions and I expect the Russians to remain there. As for Azerbaijan, the continued struggle to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh remains a major problem, of course, even if the fighting is less pronounced than it once was.
As for European integration, those states that want to cooperate with the EU can do so within the European Neighbourhood Policy, which could bring aid and access to European markets. However, I doubt any of the states will become a candidate country in the near future.
Q: How would you describe Turkey’s regional role?
A: Turkey wants to assume a more pronounced international role and to have good relations with all its neighbours. The opening to Armenia, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, and Turkish diplomacy on Iran demonstrate this. However, I do not think Turkey is strong or credible enough to forge peace settlements, e.g. between Georgia and Russia. However, I expect Turkish investment and involvement to remain very visible.
Q: Armenia still demands recognition of ’genocide’ from Turkey and the international community. As a result, the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia seems to have stopped. How do you see the future of bilateral relations?
A: This is a very difficult question. Ideally, middle ground could be found, maybe one that would stop short of using the word genocide but still acknowledging the great loss of life of Armenians. I think the Turkish government and the Armenian government were very brave to open normalizing relations, because there is opposition in to it in both countries. Perhaps if scholars on both sides could take a lead in fostering dialogue and research, this would help.
Q: Azerbaijan talks about a direct link between Armenia-Turkish relations and a Karabakh settlement. What is your opinion?
A: I can understand the position of Baku, but Turkey may want to demonstrate good relations with Armenia as it eyes EU membership. I can imagine Turkey and Armenia improving ties without a final settlement of Karabakh.News.Az
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