HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

Q: Turkish Premier will visit the United States on April 12-13. Which results do you think can be expected after his meeting with US President Obama?

A: The Turkish prime minister and the US president have a lot of issues for discussion including the issues of military cooperation and the future of US military bases in Turkey, war in Iraq, peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan, the problem of Turkey's rapprochement with Syria and Iran. The Iranian issue becomes even more relevant in the context of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, about which the six countries (USA, Russia, Britain, France, China and Germany) have serious fears and concerns. Here, even Russia has recently agreed on sanctions against Iran. Against this background, the signing of Turkey's multibillion gas contracts with Iran, significantly weakening the effectiveness of sanctions against that country, looks like a serious challenge to the international community.

This background will have a significant impact on the results of  the US-Turkish negotiations, as well as discussions of issues related to the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Obviously, the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the possible ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish Parliament will be critical during the meeting the of Prime Minister of Turkey and the US president also because they affect the issue of personal prestige of Barack Obama. The world remembers the promises made to them during the pre-election presidential campaign in 2008 regarding the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, committed in the Ottoman Empire in 1915, in the event of his election as the US president.

And the purpose of the visit of the Turkish Premier to Washington is important here? If he goes to the United States for "linking" the issue of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations with progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict, then today we can say that the negotiations will not succeed and will lead to a sharp increase in the probability of recognition of the Armenian Genocide in 1915 from the US side. I think it comes to this, because recently official Ankara has again assured Azerbaijan that it would discuss the Karabakh problem in Washington.

It is important to understand what the problem is not in Armenia and its policies. It is rather in the fact that both the United States and Russia have now a consensus on the fact that the Armenian-Turkish relations should be separated from the Azerbaijani-Armenian issues. Both powers understand the difficulty of simultaneous settlement of two complex issues in the region, and besides, it is clear that Russia is not interested in the soonest settlement of the Karabakh conflict (because it does not "see" the possible implications of this for it). Against this background, Turkey's attempt to "force in" its vision on solving this problem in the United States can backfire.

I would also like to add that Washington will host a meeting of President Serzh Sargsyan with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A trilateral meeting between Obama, Erdogan and Sargsyan is also possible when necessary (depending on the results of two other bilateral meetings).

Q: How will this meeting impact Washington’s position in the Armenian-Turkish issue?

A: As is was earlier said, in case Turkey binds the Armenian-Turkish and Azerbaijani-Armenian relations (if exactly, bind ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols to “progress” in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict) this will lead to the growing possibility of the recognition of Armenian genocide by the United States.

Indeed, the fact that Azerbaijan was not invited to the Summit on nuclear security in Washington (as is known, nether Turkey, nor Armenia or Georgia are not nuclear superpowers, however, they have received an invitation from President Barack Obama) shows the US position, which is against binding the Armenian-Turkish and Azerbaijani-Armenian relations with each other (especially because the negative position of Azerbaijan to possible ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish parliament is clear).

Q: Which issues can Sargsyan and Obama discuss in Washington and how can this meeting influence the further developments?

A: The meeting will discuss two issues: the way Barack Obama should overcome the situation with recognition of the Armenian genocide of 1915 (in the case the Turkish parliament does not ratify the protocols until April 24) and the issue of Armenia’s readiness for compromises in the Karabakh conflict settlement. I think Washington will try to put some pressure on official Yerevan for their readiness to make concessions in the Karabakh issue.

In order not to be subjected to pressure in Washington, Armenia should speak with a number of initiatives until April 12. For examples, the National Assembly of Armenia could have ratified both Armenian-Turkish protocols regardless of the actions to be taken by the Turkish parliament and Armenia also could offer Azerbaijan to sign a framework agreement based on the Madrid principles. This would prove the reliability and predictability of the Armenian actions in the complex process of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and would also create a favorable background before the meeting of the leaders of the United States, Turkey and Armenia in Washington.

Q: What do you expect from the traditional speech of President Obama on April 24?

A: Though odd it may seem, the US president’s speech on April 24 will strongly depend on Turkey’s position in the ratification of protocols. If Turkey does not ratify protocols until 24 April 2010,  the possibility of the use of the word “genocide” in Obama’s message will be extremely high.

Q: Can we expect a breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict settlement soon?

A: It is naive to expect a great breakthrough in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict against such an unfavorable background when even the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia “exchange” sharp and even abusive statements. The level of mutual trust is extremely high in the societies. But even it such conditions it is possible to find intermediate solutions. For example, Armenia could state readiness to sign Madrid principles on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, as they contain the elements concerning all conflict parties (the principle of territorial integrity, right of nations for self-determination and solution of conflict without use of force). The signing of the framework agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia could become enough for ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish parliament.

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