Interview with Vugar Seyidov, political reviewer for AzerTag news agency.
Q: When he met Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, Barack Obama urged Armenia and Turkey to take steps to improve relations. What role may the US factor play in Turkish-Armenian reconciliation?
A: It plays the role of a persuader. The United States has no real levers to put pressure on either Turkey or Armenia. Armenia is well beyond the radius of US coverage. It is under the complete control of another pole [Russia]. Washington will be unable to put any real pressure on Yerevan. It can cancel its annual assistance to Armenia or stop direct financial support to the separatists, but I am sure Armenia would survive this. All these losses would be compensated by its northern neighbour to whom several millions are nothing. You might say that the United States will take a pro-Azerbaijani position on the Karabakh issue, but the Americans are not alone in the OSCE Minsk Group.
Washington’s inclination towards Baku (or the threat of inclination) is easily neutralized by the tough position of another, well known co-chair, Russia, for whom Armenia is an outpost.
The Americans have no levers of pressure on Turkey either. Whoever thinks that Turkey can be blackmailed with the resolution on the recognition of the fictional 'genocide' is mistaken. This is a senseless threat. Recognition will give nothing, except for five days of joy to the Armenians. Then there will come the realization 'what next?' Nothing. The world can recognize the 'genocide' and this will be nothing but a senseless political declaration. A court recognition is more important but it will never happen as the Malta tribunal was held long ago and did not recognize the genocide. There will be no new court hearing in the Hague, as the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court allows the consideration of acts of genocide that took place after 2002. Parliamentarians can adopt any resolution. They have no importance for Turkey. Lawmakers in several countries have passed resolutions and Turkey has not collapsed as a result. This made the Armenians happy for a couple of days and that’s all. Their brandy is finished.
The United States has no levers of pressure on any of the countries, but Turkey has something to punish the Americans with and they know this full well, especially now that the status of the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan is uncertain, so the Americans can do nothing in this case other than ask and persuade.
Q: Obama said Turkey remains a US strategic ally. Does it mean that in his traditional message to the Armenian community on 24 April, Obama will avoid the word 'genocide' when describing the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire?
A: Though I am not a political scientist or Nostradamus and I do not like to make forecasts, I dare say that Obama will not say the word 'genocide'. If he did not do it in the first year of his presidency, he is hardly likely to do it now. But at the same time, I would like to repeat that whether Obama says this word or not, nothing will change. Obama is not the court of last instance. He is a human being. The 1915 events will not become 'genocide' just because he uses the word 'genocide'. Let’s remember that he has said 100 times that this was 'genocide'. Nothing will change if he repeats this as the US president.
Q: Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports that during their meeting in Washington, Sargsyan reminded Erdogan that the protocols do not contain a word about Karabakh. He said that despite this the Turkish side wants to see active steps on withdrawal from the occupied Azerbaijani lands. Do you think Turkey will stick to its position?
A: I will be brief - I have no doubt that Turkey will maintain its position. Ankara’s position on the Karabakh issue will not change. The protocols do not contain a single word about 'genocide', nevertheless, the Armenians continue to insist on this word. The protocols are a two-edged sword. By the way, the protocols also do not say a word about timescales. Therefore, it is possible to agree with Sargsyan’s argumentation but at the same time to keep the protocols on the back burner. What's most important is to bring the message to the attention of the Armenians. It has already been brought to their attention. They are well aware of what to do to accelerate the process. It is up to them whether the border opens or remains closed.
Q: After his meeting with Erdogan, Sargsyan said at the National Cathedral in Washington that Armenia did not intend to make the 'genocide' the subject of an investigation and did not believe that Turkey could play a positive role in the Karabakh negotiating process. What does this position mean for Armenian-Turkish relations?
A: Nothing good. The talks have failed. The protocols are a long way off ratification. However, I do not doubt that Armenia will make the first step. I mean the liberation of five districts and 14 villages in Lachin District at the first stage. The border will open only AFTER that.
Q: How can you explain the policy of Yerevan which states its intention to normalize ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey but makes every effort in the opposite direction?
A: How can Yerevan’s policy be explained if the government is run by political dilettantes and amateurs? There is a good proverb: Wise men learn from other men's mistakes, fools from their own. The Armenian leadership is constantly making mistakes but I not sure that it learns from them. Sargsyan and his predecessor are stuck in deadlock and it will take time to get out of it.
Q: May Obama play an active role in resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict or are his statements just declarative?
A: No co-chair will be able to settle anything separately. The negotiations will not advance until they all come to a common denominator, until they work out a single platform and decide for themselves what party they support most - either the unlimited self-determination of Karabakh Armenians which will damage the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan or self-determination within the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan will budge from their positions without pressure from the mediators. The co-chairs should first come to a common denominator and then bring pressure to bear. If they continue to say that pressure is not part of their mandate, the negotiations will never be effective. Thus, Obama’s role in this case is zero if taken individually.
News.Az
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