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May 26th
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Probability that Turkey-Armenia Protocols will be ratified is very low

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Armenia facing dilemma after Washington meetings.

There are two possible scenarios for Armenia-Turkey normalization to develop after the recent meetings in Washington, political scientist and Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute Sergei Minasyan said.

“I do not possess accurate information about the domestic discussions, but I have the impression that Armenia has faced a dilemma after those meetings: it will either renounce from the Armenia-Turkey Protocols or it will continue the process without ratifying the Protocols if it has been given some guarantees by US and Turkey,” said Minasyan.

After the meetings in Washington, according to Minasyan, it is less probable that the Protocols will be ratified.

“The probability that the Protocols will be ratified is very low as either one of the sides will withdraw from the process or the two sides will attempt finding another format for the process to continue,” explained Minasyan, adding that if the Protocols are not ratified it does not necessarily mean that the normalization slows down.

 

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