Armenia’s three-way coalition government, which enjoys a clear majority in the country’s parliament, has reversed its earlier decision to complete “within days” the parliamentary ratification of the protocols on normalization of relations with Turkey.
The government put the blame for its decision on Turkey’s acting slow in ratifying the deal “without preconditions and in a reasonable timeframe.”
Why, all of a sudden, did Armenia decide last month to seek ratification of the protocols normalizing relations with Turkey, and why has it now decided to halt the ratification process? Did Turkey change its position and promise Yerevan that it has given up its key demand of Armenia actually withdrawing, or convincingly pledging to withdraw, from the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, or at least from five of the seven Azerbaijani regions around the disputed, Armenian-populated area?
Did Armenia withdraw from those five regions, erasing Turkey’s concerns? Or did the Minsk Group’s efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and bring an end to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory produce some tangible results, satisfying both Turkey and Azerbaijan?
Has anything changed?
Armenia is claiming that Ankara is imposing “alien” preconditions on the ratification of the protocols. Indeed, there is no reference in the protocols to either the Nagorno-Karabakh issue or the continued occupation of Azerbaijani territory. That was, and is, one of the leading complaints of many Turks and Azerbaijanis regarding the protocols, even though, by and large, a vast majority of Turkish citizens have welcomed the idea of improved relations with Armenia and have commended the government for making such a move.
Obviously, if the border with Armenia was closed due to the Armenian aggression and occupation of Azerbaijan territory, opening it must only be in the cards if and when Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijani territory and Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is reestablished. Irrespective of whether such a condition was in the text of the protocols, Yerevan must obviously have been aware that improving relations with Turkey and getting the border gates reopened required its compliance with “good neighborliness,” not only with Ankara but with all other countries of the region, led by Azerbaijan, where it still has occupying troops.
And, obviously, there was a reference to the need to develop good neighborly relations in the text of the Armenia protocols and thus there was as well a written condition in the protocols implying in all clarity that Yerevan is expected to give up its intransigence, stop its aggression and start withdrawing from the occupied Azerbaijani territory.
Obviously, apart from the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the issue of the occupied Azerbaijani regions, Armenia is required to lift the preconditions imposed on the interpretation of the protocols by its Constitutional Court. It must also declare its recognition of the Kars and Gyumri accords between Turkey and the former Soviet Union (and the then-communist Armenian republic, which was part of the Soviet empire) and thus officially recognize the existing borders between Turkey and Armenia and declare it has no designs on Turkish territory.
Failed political ploy
Armenia’s move to start the process of ratifying the protocols was a cunning political move designed to corner Turkey and force it to also act on the ratification of the protocols. The present decision of the Armenian coalition government to halt the parliamentary ratification process is a political decision conceding that the earlier move has failed to achieve the designed effect in Ankara. Furthermore, two days in advance of the anniversary of the alleged “genocide,” the decision to halt the process of ratification is aimed at increasing the pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to use the “g” word in his anniversary statement. At the very least, it aims to take away a possible pretext that might be used by the American president to avoid the use of the contentious word.
It will not be the end of the world for Turkey should the American president decides to use the “g” word. Of course, such a decision will have a cost for both the U.S. and Turkey, but Armenia will pay more for such a development.
Yerevan should understand that Turkey has extended it a hand in peace and good neighborliness. If it wants to turn down that hand, it will be its own choice...
Yusuf Kanli/Hurriyet Daily News
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