Armenia's recent declaration about freezing the process of parliamentary ratification of the protocols signed with Turkey may be perceived as a setback; however, from a different perspective, this development also constitutes an opportunity.
As you may recall, Turkey has made the normalization between the two neighbors dependent on a regional peace project by connecting the ratification of the protocols by the Turkish Parliament to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. It's clear that the Minsk Group's efforts are not sufficient to achieve an overall resolution as this group fails to draw an equation acceptable both for Armenia and Azerbaijan. That's why Turkey believes that the atmosphere is not right to implement its regional project for now. There is another obstacle, too: the Turkish Parliament's current atmosphere, as it has become an arena where the government and the opposition fight incessantly. The opposition has decided to oppose every constitutional amendment, even those about fundamental human rights and liberties. In an atmosphere where everybody talks about a constitutional referendum likely to be followed by early legislative elections, the government has no reason to expect parliamentary ratification of the protocols. Furthermore, the opposition parties are ready to label every attempt at normalization with Armenia as treason, and they will definitely use this as a propaganda tool to gain nationalist votes. On the other hand, the fact that Turkish flags were burned during April 24 commemoration ceremonies in Armenia hasn't made things easier. It's also true that those in Armenia who have signed the protocols are in a delicate political situation in their country.
This negative situation has one positive aspect: If these protocols are indeed brought to the parliaments right now, their ratification will most likely be rejected. So to freeze the protocols officially in Armenia and in Turkey is a way to preserve them, keeping the door half open to other positive developments.
The first of these positive developments is that Turkey has learned not to react too much to US presidents' April 24 statements. By the way, US presidents have developed a skill in writing these statements in a way that satisfies nobody in the end. Secondly, it's now clear that in Turkey, there are people willing to participate in the mourning of April 24, proving that some people in Turkey are sensible to the sufferings of other peoples. It's important to show that in Anatolia everyone has suffered, but it is also important to show which mechanisms were responsible for these sufferings. This may help build empathy between peoples, and empathy is the shortest route to the implementation of the protocols.
From now on, every positive development between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be considered a positive development for the protocols. As the process seems to be in a deadlock, every little step regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue will count. It's important to show that everything is not black or white; gray zones are wider than everybody thinks. These gray zones may allow national parliaments to reconsider the freezing of the protocols.
The present situation of the protocols doesn't mean that there will be no more progress in Turkish-Armenian relations. As President Abdullah Gül emphasizes, the normalization process can be pursued through silent diplomacy from now on. This kind of diplomacy may create an atmosphere against the extreme nationalist currents in both countries. By stating that they are not abandoning the spirit of the protocols, both sides give the impression that they want progress.
Beril Dedeoglu / Today's Zaman
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