Disappointed by the U.S. president’s failure to declare the 1915 killings of Armenians as "genocide," advocates in the United States are expected to push for formal recognition in the run-up to November’s congressional elections, diplomats and analysts said.
Armenian-Americans and their supporters in Congress "think they next have a chance in October, a few weeks before the hotly contested elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate," said one Turkish diplomat over the weekend.
"In U.S. domestic politics, ethnic and interest lobbies believe they are more effective at such pre-election times," the official said.
In his annual statement Saturday marking the beginning of the Armenian deportations during World War I, Obama declined to characterize last century's Armenian deaths as "genocide," using instead the term "Meds Yeghern," meaning "the great calamity" in Armenian.
Unsatisfied by the president's terminology, the Armenian National Committee of America, or ANCA, denounced Obama for avoiding the use of the English word "genocide."
"In yet another disgraceful capitulation to Turkey's threats, President Obama once again failed to properly recognize the Armenian genocide, offering euphemisms and evasive terminology to characterize this crime against humanity," the ANCA said in a weekend statement.
"Today we join with Armenians in the United States and around the world in voicing our sharp disappointment with the president's failure to properly condemn and commemorate the Armenian genocide," said ANCA Chairman Ken Hachikian.
The Armenian Assembly of America, another major U.S. Armenian group, was more measured in criticizing Obama. "We have long stated that U.S. affirmation of the Armenian genocide should not be held hostage to Armenia-Turkey relations," said Bryan Ardouny, the assembly's executive director.
"Unequivocal affirmation of the Armenian genocide will also further the cause of genocide prevention worldwide and be more faithful to American principles," he said.
Strategic concerns and Iran
Obama's statement came amid a faltering reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia. The foreign ministers of the two neighbors signed a deal last October calling for the reopening of the land border between Turkey and Armenia and the establishment of full diplomatic relations.
But the deal has recently stalled, with Armenia suspending the process last week at the same time it accused Turkey of failing to implement the October agreement.
Previous U.S. presidents studiously avoided using the term “genocide” – which Turkey staunchly opposes – in past April 24 statements out of concern for Turkey’s strategic importance for the U.S.
Obama declined to use the term "genocide" last year, implying in his statement that he did not want to harm the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia. In this year's statement, there was no such reference, however.
Analysts agree that while the normalization process is faltering, Obama had to revert to the "Turkey's strategic importance" card as a pretext not to utter the g-word.
"In addition to a number of other reasons, Obama also apparently did not want to antagonize Turkey a few weeks before a key vote at the United Nations Security Council targeting Iran's controversial nuclear program," said Bülent Alirıza, head of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.
The United States and the West are urging the U.N. Security Council to endorse in late May or June punishing new sanctions against Iran. Turkey, a non-permanent member of the Security Council, strongly opposes such sanctions.
Pending 'genocide' bill
The U.S. House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee narrowly passed a resolution in early March calling for the U.S.’s formal recognition of the last century's Armenian killings as "genocide," but it is not clear if or when the bill will go to a full House floor vote.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made it clear that she would take the resolution to a House floor vote only if she sees solid majority support behind the bill. At the moment, roughly 140 lawmakers out of the House's 435 seats back the resolution.
However, this number could increase in the run-up to November’s congressional elections, in which the whole House and nearly one-third of the 100-member Senate will be renewed.
The election is expected to see a tough competition between Obama's Democratic Party, which presently controls both the House and the Senate, and the opposition Republicans, who want to recapture the majority in both congressional chambers.
In this climate of competition, more lawmakers may support the "genocide" resolution to attract pro-Armenian votes, according to analysts.
Hurriyet Daily News
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