When Turkey started the reconciliation process with Armenia it had two aims: to curb Armenia’s “genocide” recognition efforts and to find a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in exchange for the normalization of relations and the opening of borders.
Yet the Nagorno-Karabakh dimension got lost in the process. That was the critical mistake that made the process doomed to failure.
Turkey had to keep the Karabakh dimension in sight and get the Azerbaijanis at least indirectly involved. The statements of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, that Baku was informed at all stages never reflected the truth. The İlham Aliyev administration not only insisted that it was kept in the dark but also emphasized that it needed to be consulted, not just informed.
Most probably, the current government took the “two states, one nation” concept to mean “Ankara decides, Baku follows.” Since that concept was not perceived as such by Baku, the AKP government has hit the wall.
That’s why Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan rushed to Azerbaijan and made his famous statement that the normalization protocols signed with Armenia will not pass Parliament prior to a solution on Karabakh. I believe that by doing so, he delivered a fatal blow to the reconciliation process, and it was at this time that the process got stuck.
Yerevan races with Turkey on mismanagement
The Armenians, however, have proved better at mismanaging the process. Actually, one should not be that surprised – after all, we are the children of the same land. The Armenian Constitutional court’s decision offered the alibi the AKP was looking for on a golden plate. Turkey did not miss a minute to use the court’s decision to hide its unwillingness to pass the protocols through Parliament.
Armenians made an even bigger mistake by suspending the ratification process, just ahead of the annual statement by U.S. President on April 24. If Yerevan thought it could exert pressure on President Barack Obama to use the “g” word, it probably saw one more time that strategic interests outweighed moral values. Not only the “g” word was not used, the suspension of the ratification process by Armenia has let Turkey off the hook.
Reconciling with Turkey’s Armenia
Looking at the present state of affairs, the government can use this opportunity to redesign its policy on how to handle Armenian claims of genocide.
The government tried to negotiate a deal with Armenia, trying to convince them to establish a commission of experts that will inquire the past. But Turkey’s real counterpart for the past tragic events are the Anatolian Armenians, some who live in Turkey and others dispersed all over the world. If we want to face our past and reconcile with our mistakes, we need to first start from the Turkish Armenian community. The whole discussion is taking place in the absence of Turkish Armenians. We need to immediately take measures to improve their rights and respond to whatever needs they have; be it the restoration of their churches or the solving of the problems of their foundations. We should start to communicate with the Armenian diaspora as well.
By doing so, we should reiterate the fact that Turkey has closed its borders with Armenia not because of its efforts to make genocide claims recognized internationally but because of its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. And that while an internal process of reconciliation with the past will speed up in Turkey, genocide claims will be less of an important issue, while Karabakh will continue to be the main obstacles in relations with Armenia.
Time for Armenia to think twice
April 24 was a day of both optimism and pessimism for me. I was filled with optimism as I saw a group headed by a number of intellectuals holding a ceremony for the tragic killings of Armenians in the hands of Ottoman Turks. Finally some has shown the courage of accepting that whatever you call it, our Armenian compatriots were subjected to murder.
A dinner with a group of friends the same day evaporated my optimism, replacing it with pessimism. They were all very critical of the event.
Obviously one has to avoid being naïve. A change in the mindset of a society takes a lot of time.
On the other hand, let’s not underestimate the progress in the framework of the Armenian issue. It would have been inconceivable five years ago to have a remembrance ceremony in the heart of Istanbul.
As Turkey will become more and more democratic and as its civil society will become stronger and stronger, Turkey will be less interested in talking about this issue with Yerevan as a condition of normalizing relations.
Yet as long as energy resources continue to be of strategic importance for Turkey, relations with Azerbaijan will always prevail and Armenia will always hit the obstacle of Karabakh on its way to integrate with the world.
Barcin Yinanc/Hurriyet Daily News
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