The collapse of a plan to end a century of hostility between Armenia and Turkey may have its biggest repercussions in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a flashpoint near a corridor bringing oil and gas to the West. The peace initiative between two of the players in a complex web of relationships in the south Caucasus crumbled last week when Armenia suspended ratification of the accord. Observers said the pact, which would have established diplomatic relations and opened their land border, was already dead-locked as neither parliament had approved the deal.
But its suspension has left another, potentially explosive issue hanging in the balance-the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region lost by Azerbaijan to Armenian-backed forces in the bloodiest of the ethnic conflicts that accompanied the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Many had hoped normalised relations between Armenia and Turkey would help unlock talks on the enclave, which has run its own affairs with the support of Armenia since splitting away from Azerbaijan. It is connected to Armenia by a
slim corridor.
Azerbaijan, a close Turkish ally and energy trading partner, saw the accord as a betrayal, potentially robbing it of leverage over Armenia in negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh. Analysts say the suspension will do little to soothe Azeri concerns. “The process has left Azerbaijan isolated, and effectively pulled the rug from under its foreign policy framework,” said Svante Cornell of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “It also leaves Armenia’s leadership weakened. Thus — more frustration and more insecurity
, the last thing the region needs,” he said.
The deal agreed a year ago was the closest Turkey and Armenia had come to moving past the World War One mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks that has poisoned their relationship. The United States and Russia both backed the accord as a means of stabilising the south Caucasus and encouraging greater trade and prosperity. Turkey stood to reap diplomatic kudos in the West as it bids for membership of the European Union. Landlocked Armenia would have benefited from the reopening of its western frontier,
closed by Turkey in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.
Washington said last week the deal was not dead, but more time might be needed to “create some new momentum.” But diplomats say they see little chance of Turkey dropping its demand for Armenian concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, or of Armenia complying in exchange for an open frontier.
The peace overtures have severely strained ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan, affecting negotiations on gas supplies key to the planned Nabucco pipeline, which aims to bypass Russia to supply gas to the European Union. Azerbaijan late last year struck deals to sell more gas to Russia, whose South Stream pipeline project is the main rival to Nabucco. such deals will draw supplies away from Nabucco and make it harder for the project to get off the ground.
In the belief that Washington was the main driver of the Turkish-Armenian thaw, Azerbaijan this month cancelled joint military exercises with the United States and threatened to reconsider their “strategic relationship.” “Long-term peace and normalisation of relations in the south Caucasus cannot be achieved by rewarding aggression and by excluding the region’s strategically most important country,” Novruz Mammadov, chief foreign policy adviser to Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, wrote last week.
An estimated 30,000 people died in the Nagorno-Karabakh war before a ceasefire was agreed in 1994. More than 15 years of mediation by Russia, the United States and France have yielded a loose framework of “basic principles,” but no peace deal. Snipers and landmines on the frontline meanwhile pick off young Azeri and Armenian conscripts on a regular basis. Intensified negotiations last year between Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan fuelled hope that some sort of solution might be close.
The International Crisis Group thinktank warned this month of a threat from “domestically entrenched maximalist forces” opposed to a Nagorno-Karabakh deal in Armenia and Azerbaijan. “If the talks fail now, Armenia and Azerbaijan may find themselves trapped in a spiralling military escalation which will have unpredictable consequences for both countries and for wider regional security,” ICG analyst Tabib Huseynov wrote. Thanks to its elevated position and heavy fortifications, military experts say Nagorno-K
arabakh would be difficult to retake. But that has not stopped Azerbaijan from spending heavily on its military and frequently threatening to try.
The Azerbaijan army has all capabilities to hit any target on the territory of Armenia if necessary," Defence Minister Safar Abiyev said last week. A resumption in hostilities could quickly suck in other powers in a region crisscrossed by energy pipelines. Russia’s largest military base outside its borders is located in Armenia, and the two countries are close allies. — AFP
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