Interview with Thomas de Waal, author of the book Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War.
Q: This month sees the 16th anniversary of the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Do you think the sides will manage to make any progress in resolution of the Karabakh conflict? Will the international community recognize Karabakh as an independent entity?
A: The major achievement in the last 16 years is that there has been no major resumption of hostilities. No war is always better than war. But obviously it is a major disappointment that the sides cannot agree on a peace agreement. Essentially what we have seen over this period is a ’non-aggression pact’. The essential difference remains the same one that began the conflict in February 1988, the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. I don’t see that the two sides are any closer to agreement on this than they were in 1988. And while that difference remains, for me the principal danger is not a big outbreak of fighting (which is possible but fortunately I think very unlikely), but an escalation of the situation on the line of contact in which young soldiers from both sides will die.
Q: Azerbaijan says that sooner or later it will restore its control over Karabakh and the other occupied Azerbaijani lands. What conditions would lead the Armenians to make such concessions?
A: I have to be blunt on this issue — I cannot foresee circumstances under which Azerbaijan restores full sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. Everything that has happened in the last 22 years has gradually removed that sovereignty. Karabakh has become gradually Armenianized. At the same time, I do not foresee Nagorno-Karabakh gaining full independence. That is why I think the formula of ’interim international status’ as set out under the Madrid Principles is a very good one. If the two sides can agree to that, then Azerbaijan will receive back the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh and the Karabakh Armenians will keep what they have at the moment. I cannot see a better result than this. But this agreement will also involve changes in the situation on the ground and a much greater international commitment to make it work.
Q: What do you think is needed for a breakthrough in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: To my mind, for the conflict to be solved peacefully there needs to be more pressure to change the status quo. That pressure could come from below, if societies were more open and democratic. But the semi-authoritarian leaders on both sides prefer to preserve a nationalist atmosphere in which patriotic slogans about Karabakh have precedence over debate about what is the best solution for everyone — even as the same leaders in private discuss a document which envisages major concessions to the other side. Or that pressure could come from outside if the international community were more interested in the conflict. Many people in the region think that world leaders are manipulating the Karabakh conflict and could solve it if they wanted to. I have the opposite view — they do not show sufficient interest in the issue and it is too low down their agenda.
Thomas de Waal is a senior associate on the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Lala B. -News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
