Interview with Rasim Musabeyov, Azerbaijani political scientist.
Q: Leader of People’s Republican Party of Turkey Deniz Baykal has recently sent to resignation due to the scandalous tape with his participation. As is known, Baykal is one of the main opponents of opening of the Turkish-Armenian border. Can the tape be made at the order of the ruling party of Turkey to clear way to normalizing of relations with Armenia?
A: I do not think that after it the Turkish leadership will return to the process of normalizing ties with Armenia. The matter is that Turkish Premier Erdogan has made corrections to the initial course on normalizing relations with Armenia not because Baykal and his party were putting pressure on him. A simple majority in the parliament is rather needed for the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols. And these protocols could have been ratified. But the matter is that Erdogan did not have an unambiguous attitude on this issue even in his own party. The Turkish public opinion played a great role here as they disagreed to ignore Azerbaijani interests in this issue. Thus, regardless of whether Baykal quits or stays, the political line of Erdogan has already been worked out, it is principal and has been voiced both before Azerbaijan and Turkey. This line is that the protocols will not be ratified and the Turkish-Armenian border will not open unless there is a progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement. I think this principal position will be preserved.
Q: Could Baykal have been discredited at the initiative of the Turkish leadership?
A: I do not think the developments with Baykal were the order of the country leadership. If he was taken on camera with a young prostitute, I would have called it a special operation. But when we speak about the affair of Baykal with his former deputy and parliament member, it is clear that it would have been impossible to arrange it as a provocation. They could only take it on cam, but it is impossible to organize it as a provocation. Therefore, I do not think this was the provocation of Erdogan’s party against Deniz Baykal.
Q: On the whole, which steps should Armenian side to do on Karabakh for Turkey to reanimate the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations in full?
A: The first attempt was to separate these processes-the Turkish-Armenian normalization and the Armenian-Azerbaijani regulation, They wanted the Turkish-Armenian process to go first and they hoped that on the other hand Armenians will feel at ease and on the other hand it will be possible to promote the Karabakh settlement. But this trick did not work. Now Turkey is facing the need to deal with this problem which creates real risks to the regional security. The “genocide of Armenians” as well as the frozen Turkish-Armenian relations throughout 20 years do not create any risks to security in the region. However, the unsettled Karabakh conflict may grow into war here. Therefore, Turkey is obliged to deal with the main problem in conditions when Armenia lost the bonus it hoped to gain from the quarrel between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Q: Armenia has suspended the process of normalizing ties with Turkey but it has not withdrawn its signature under protocols. What can you say about it?
A: Armenians can certainly do what they want and they can even withdraw their signatures, they have no other way out. In the end, it is Armenia that needs the opening of borders and establishing diplomatic relations. Turkey will live without it for ages. These states are incomparable for their scales in this sense.
Q: Can Turkey again face the pressure of superpowers that promote the normalization of its ties with Armenia?
A: Pressure is when you depend on someone and you are rejected issuing credits or they arrange something that causes real threats to you. But Turkey is not in this situation. We should not exaggerate the pressure which can be put on Turkey. Its EU membership does not depend on whether she normalizes relations with Armenia. The Cyprus issue is currently more important for EU and the resolution of the Armenian-Turkish ties will not get Turkey closer to this organization and Ankara understands this perfectly well.
News.Az
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