Interview with Janusz Bugajski, Lavrentiadis Chair, New European Democracies, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Q: What do you think about the current policy of Russia and US towards CIS area and Azerbaijan?
A: Russia seeks to have full control over the CIS area and to determine relations between individual states and Western governments and institutions. It is testing President Obama’s commitments in the region and calculating that Washington’s focus on cooperating with Moscow with regard to Afghanistan and Iran will lessen its interest in the CIS countries. Russian leaders seek to pull Azerbaijan into a closer orbit and to more effectively control the security environment and energy exports in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin.
Q: There is an opinion that Russia is ready to prevent by any means membership of its neighbors including Azerbaijan in NATO. Do you agree with that?
A: Russia operates on the principle that its state ambitions predominate over the national interests of its many neighbors. As a result, applications for membership in NATO by any South Caucasus country would essentially be seen as treason and would provoke Russian reactions to destabilize the state in question and replace its government.
Q: Might the Russian military invasion be repeated in Karabakh case after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008?
A: There is always the possibility that Moscow will exploit an existing inter-state or internal conflict to further its interests anywhere in the CIS region, especially if one of the governments in question adopts foreign and security policies that are opposed by the Kremlin, such as moving closer to the US or NATO.
Q: And how do you estimate the role of US in the Karabakh settlement and Armenian-Turkish border issue?
A: Unfortunately, the Obama administration has failed to develop a coherent and effective Caucasus policy and instead of dealing with a package of related problems it has tried to tackle one issue (Turkish-Armenian relations) without considering the impact on other outstanding problems, especially the Karabakh dispute. Hopefully, failure to advance the Turkish-Armenian dispute will convince U.S. policy makers that a package of related agreements need to be reached and Azerbaijan needs to be closely involved in the process. Excluding Baku is a short-term approach that will simply encourage Russian expansionism and territorial partition.
Q: What do you expect from Russian-Turkish cooperation for the South Caucasus region and stability in our region?
A: Russia is exploiting Turkey to exclude the American and European presence from the Black Sea and Caucasus regions. It manipulates Turkish grievances toward the EU and the US and has offered incentives to entice Ankara into a strategic partnership, including energy pipelines, nuclear reactors, freer trade, and other material benefits. Unfortunately, the government in Turkey has failed to sufficiently defend Azerbaijan and other independent post-Soviet states from growing Russian pressure and to act as a counterpart to overbearing Russian influence.
Lala B. - News.Az
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