Interview with Arif Yunusov, chief of department of conflict studies at the Institute of Peace and Democracy.
Q: Turkish Premier Erdogan has paid a visit to Azerbaijan which showed that the relations between our countries are sustaining the warmest period of their developments. Can it be said that the hopes of official Yerevan for the cooling of the Turkish-Azerbaijani relations in the result of the Turkish-Armenian “football diplomacy” have failed?A: The visit of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to Baku is a very good sign, of course. And I am glad that the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations have improved. But I would not say that these relations are sustaining "warm period in its development”. Previously, they were much better and we have not yet reached the previous level of relations. So we hope to achieve at least the level of the relations that were in the 90's. But in any case, I welcome the beginning of the process of improving relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey, we should not treat our only strategic ally like this. As for the expectations of the Armenians, I must say that we pay too much attention to individual publications (which are odious, as a rule), or statements made in the Armenian media on the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. In fact, the major Armenian politicians and experts have always understood that, firstly, any deterioration in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations will be temporary. Deterioration can occur without binding with the Armenian-Turkish talks. But ultimately, the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations are again back on track, because the deterioration will always be the result of certain political processes, as the basis for relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey is laid by quite different factors, primarily ethnic, cultural and religious unity.
On the other hand, we seem not to understand that the signing of the protocols in Switzerland means the start in the process of improving the Armenian-Turkish relations. But the process will not be fast, it may take years, while the relationship of the negotiating parties will permanently face difficulties and crisis. For example the process of settlement of Karabakh conflict started in 1992. Now it is 2010, that is about 20 years have passed and there is no assurance that the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is close. So why do some believe that the Armenian-Turkish relations would be different? I am categorically against allegations that the alleged Armenian-Turkish relations have failed and stalled. No, it's just the first but not the last crisis in the negotiation process. There are no alternatives to the negotiations between Armenia and Turkey and they certainly will continue. But it is also naïve to suppose that this process will quickly bear fruit.
Q: Then why is Armenia so nervous about the thaw in the Turkish-Russian relations?
A: The basis for such inadequate reaction is laid by many-layer stereotypes and fear. On the other hand Armenians (as well as the Russian authorities) have persuaded each others for two centuries that Russia is the only ally that will protect Armenia. On the other hand, Armenians have repeatedly been a bargaining chip in the Russian-Turkish relations. In the result, Armenians in the face of Dashnaks declared their loyalty to the Ottoman Empire in 1911 but just before the First World War they took Russia’s side. And they even stood with arms in their hands on the side of the Russian army. The Turks reacted immediately and Armenians have not been able to forget this for almost a century. Armenians thought that Soviet Russia is better but they were mistaken in their hopes. These facts were a heavy burden for the Armenian mentality and they still cannot forget this. Therefore, they perceive the Russian-Turkish thaw extremely painfully, especially among those Armenians who are too looped on the past in the face of Dashnaks, radical forces and diaspora.
Q: In this regard, what can you say about the statement in Armenian mass media that Russia has presented the 2+3+2 scheme of Azerbaijani lands de-occupation to Armenia?
A: It is sometimes difficult to comment on what appears in mass media due to talks. Practice shows that they are not always confirmed. Therefore, it is difficult to say whether it is real though, in fact, there is no sensation in it. In fact, this variant has already been proposed in previous years in relation to the return of seven regions occupied around the former NKAO. In other word, the return of occupied regions by Armenia was proposed to make a single process (in exchange for recognition of Karabakh’s independence by Armenia) or protract in any form. But this remained in a form of proposals. Therefore, I do not rule out this variant but I suppose this will remain on the paper.
Q: Does the world community have a mechanism of forcing Armenia to withdraw from Azerbaijani lands?
A: Formally, yes. But other conditions are needed for the purpose. First of all, this issue is completely the competence of the UN Security Council. In other word, what if some Surinam or the Pacific isles take this decision? Nothing. The destiny of peoples is defined by a small number of leading superpowers that are part of this UN Security Council. Therefore, a part of these superpowers should support this decision. And relevant resolutions have been initially adopted for the purpose. So many resolutions have been taken against Israel. And what? Therefore, a part of superpowers should also agree for extreme measures (up to the use of military force). But this is not enough. Another part of superpowers (for example, Russia or China) should not be against that. And what do you have? No-thing. Therefore, it is extremely naïve to this about this option.
Q: Can the upcoming visit of Armenian former president Ter-Petrosyan to the United States be viewed as a proof of changes of power in Armenia prepared by the United States?
A: I do not think so. According to a brief information about his visit, he will not have any official meetings with representatives of the US administration. Merely, we seem to have been used to view any visit of an opposition leader through this prism. In fact, Ter-Petrosyan will likely hold meetings with the Armenian diaspora there. However, this does not mean that Obama’s administration is preparing something in relation to Sargsyan. This is quite an exaggerated opinion.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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