Interview with Emmanuel Karagiannis, Assistant Professor of Russian, post-Soviet Politics, University of Macedonia at Thessaloniki, Greece.
Q: There are a huge energy projects linking Azerbaijan, Turkey and Greece. Don’t you think that Greece becomes more interested in stability in the South Caucasus in this regard and does Greece have any possibilities to assist this region to be more secure?
A: In recent years, Athens has shown greater interest in the South Caucasus for a number of reasons. First, there is still an ethnic Greek population in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Second, Athens seeks to diversify its sources of energy and Azerbaijan is obviously a viable option. Third, Greece would like to act as a bridge between the EU and its eastern neighbors which hope to integrate further into the Euro-Atlantic structures.
Q: Russia and Turkey has been developing a close collaboration, especially during the last 2 years. What is your opinion, may this collaboration be fruitful for the stability in the South Caucasus region?
A: Given the Turkish-Russian fierce competition in the 1990s, the current astonishing improvement of bilateral relations could certainly contribute to regional stability. But the two countries have different views about Georgia’s territorial integrity, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the role of Russia in the South Caucasus. Since Ankara and Moscow have competing interests in the region, they will often find themselves in opposite camps which practically means that the South Caucasus will remain a zone of great power competition.
Q: Turkey is very active now as a mediator in the Karabagh conflict. But at the same time Turkey has its own problems with Armenia. What do you think about Turkish potential in the Karabakh settlement?
A: Turkey is not considered by most Armenians as a neutral party in the Karabakh conflict. Ankara can be viewed as a reliable peace broker only if it normalizes relations first with Yerevan. Yet, the genocide issue has poisoned the Turkish-Armenian relations and has produced mutual suspicion. Therefore, the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations could take many years.
Q: Azerbaijan and Turkey say that there is a direct link between the Karabakh conflict and Turkish-Armenian peace process, but Armenia says they are two independent processes. Do you see interconnection between the two problems?
A: Due to the Turkish blockade of Armenia, Ankara is considered by many as part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. The Armenian leadership would have preferred to normalize relations with its big neighbor in the east while avoiding any concessions to Baku. But apparently the Erdogan government is not willing to pay the political price of such a step at a time of increased tensions with the Turkish military.
Q: Secessionists in Karabakh held parliamentary elections in the occupied Azeri territories on May 23. Do you think that international community this time or anytime later will recognize its legality?
A: There are no indications whatsoever that the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will gain diplomatic recognition soon. Having said that, Stepanakert will most likely seek further integration into Armenia.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
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