Interview with Sergey Minasyan, Armenian political scientist, deputy director of the Caucasus Institute.
Q: Do you think it possible to speak about any changes, enlivening in the process of the resolution of Karabakh conflict after the recent visit of Russian President Dmitri Medvedev to Turkey and Turkish Premier Erdogan’s visit to Azerbaijan?
A: No, it is impossible. Despite both meetings of Erdogan in the recent days and his “good intentions”, voiced these days, there will be no enlivening in the Karabakh direction.
Q: Armenia has not yet replied on the updated Madrid principles that were accepted by Azerbaijan. Do you think Yerevan’s conduct will affect the negotiation process and how long will it delay the answer?
A: In fact, neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia has given a final and definite response on Madrid principles. Azerbaijan says it accepts the Madrid principles “with some prerequisites”. The matter is that these “ some prerequisites” are related to the most important thing-the issue of a referendum in Karabakh that can legitimize the issue of Karabakh’s separation under mutual compromises on Armenia’s part. Only if Azerbaijan accepts this paragraph, it will have a sense for Armenia to accept the rest paragraphs of the Madrid principles. In turn, the Armenian foreign minister stated that several years ago Armenia agreed to accept the Madrid principles “as a basis for negotiations”. Thus, it is possible to say that Armenia has also accepted the Madrid principles with some prerequisites related to the withdrawal of troops with the lands around the former administrative borders of the NKAO of the Soviet period. Thus, not only Yerevan but also Baku will continue this process and the pingpong game periodically accusing each other.
Q: There have been proposals about the Turkish co-chairmanship in the OSCE Minsk Group. Is it realistic?
A: This is absolutely impossible. Turkey will not become the Minsk Group co-chair unless Armenia agrees. Meanwhile, Armenia will not agree by some clear reasons. The rest co-chairs will also hardly want to see Turkey fulfilling this role.
Q: Do you think Ankara and Moscow are interested in intensifying the peace process on Karabakh?
A: There will be some statements of officials on the declarative level, however, in the reality Moscow will not want and Turkey will not be able intensify the negotiation process.
Q: What are your predictions about the future of the Turkish-Armenian protocols?
A: They will hardly be ratified in the nearest future.
Kamala Mammadova
News.Az
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