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May 26th
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Turkey’s potential to assist Karabakh conflict settlement extremely weak

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Interview with Farhad Mehdiyev, head of the chair of international law at the Caucasus University, political scientist and doctor of state law.

Q: Turkey and Brazil have managed to agree with Iran about exchange of its low enriched uranium for highly enriched uranium from other countries. This agreement is expected to reduce tensions around the Iranian nuclear program. Do you think this agreement is reliable and does it reduce tensions around Iran? A: This agreement does not reduce tensions around Iran. Actually, it was clear from the beginning. The West has some suspicion and fears about Iran's nuclear intentions. Does that treaty meet all these fears and concerns? Of course, not. First, Iran does not transfer all the uranium, which he has - just 1200 kg. But Iran has more of it. On the other hand, Iran transfers the material enriched by 3,5% receives 20% purity crude in exchange. Under the agreement Iran will use it for nuclear power.
However, I am unsure that the uranium can be used on the Russian nuclear power plants in this form. To do this, uranium must be enriched to the corresponding level on Russian territory, but no agreement has been reached on this issue so far.
It should be noted that Iran had previously announced that it has centrifuges, which purify uranium to permit a higher stage. On the other hand, nuclear fuel after the use in a nuclear reactor contains plutonium - a good material for nuclear weapons -  another reason for concern for the West. Again, there is suspicion about Iran's intention to develop nuclear weapons. Rationally, Iran wants it. It's a good tool for ensuring security of the country.
There is another important point. This agreement is backed by a country whose name I will not specify here. It has been this country had pushed Turkey and Iran toward concluding the treaty. It cannot do it in open, because it has other interests, which it would not be able to realize if it backs Iran in open.

Q: Turkey has recently demonstrated an intention to play a more active role in the region. Thus, along with settling problems with Iran, it also plans to assist in the process of the Karabakh settlement. How do you assess its peacekeeping potential in assisting this conflict solution?

A: Turkey attempts to assist the peaceful solution to this conflict. The Armenian-Turkish protocols have also pursued this goal. In all possible forums Turkey is trying to speak about this platform. It should be noted that the PACE chairman, deputy of the ruling Turkish Party of Justice and Development is also engaged in this business.

However, Turkey’s potential in this issue is weak and Turkey is aware of it. The solution to this problem lies in the Kremlin while Medvedev has made it clear in his recent statement in Ankara that Russia does not intend to settle this problem in the nearest future.

The resolution of this conflict within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is possible only through war. However, currently the country does not need ideological atmosphere for war. The patriotic spirit of the population is closely tied to the level of civil public in the country. It must be strengthened. A citizen must be sure that he is an active element in the solution of problems of its society. Meanwhile, everyone in our country expects this from the government. I do not know whether there is a sufficient resource for war, as only analysts of the defense ministry have this information. When both of these factors are on the level, our country will have to hold an operation inside Azerbaijan. This will be a short term operation. Even if Azerbaijan returns back at least two occupied regions, it will be a strong stimulus for the peaceful resolution of the rest part of the problem. The recent statements of the Armenian side that it does not intend to withdraw from even two regions must have made it clear that Armenian chauvinism, supported by the “big brother” does not intend to return a single region to us. Azerbaijan should really prepare for war. Therefore, the European parliament has recently called on Armenia to disavow this position since any state in our situation would have started to think of war.  

Q: Currently, Turkey is a nonpermanent member of the UN Security Council.  What role do you think the country will play in the said structure? May Turkey have any influence in the promotion of the Karabakh process?

A: Turkey will hardly be able to provide any definite assistance within the framework of UN. Turkey will be able to provide serious assistance to the resolution of this problem in case of its military solution by Armenia. We need a rapporteur on the international arena. By the way, a Turkish military base, at least a temporary one, must be created in Nakhchivan.

Q: Is the progress possible in the Karabakh conflict settlement possible through normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations?


A: If the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations means the opening of borders and the recognition of the territorial integrity of each other, I will be brief – the progress on Karabakh will definitely be impossible. Armenians cannot change their nature and temperament for some couple of years. And the past 100 years perfectly show their intentions and attitudes towards Turkic neighbors. Unfortunately, international relations are still based inter alia on mistrust and historical practice. Perhaps, Turkey wants to move to a new system of relations, but is it prepared for this. The proof is the position of France and Germany over Turkey's membership in the EU, Russia and Iran in the Karabakh issue, Georgia's attitude toward ethnic Azerbaijanis in Georgia.

Q: We have recently observed the active rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. How may this fact affect the state of the South Caucasus countries?

A: This rapprochement is another type of activeness and influence on the South Caucasus. The matter is that whether it is of use to anyone. Looking back to history and assessing its elements of influence, Russia thinks to gain dividends from this process. For example, it has great concerns about the North Caucasus and one of the reasons of rapprochement with Turkey is the intention to get Turkey’s support on this issue. However, it is unclear who wins more from this process. As for Azerbaijan, we have nothing to lose and will only benefit from this rapprochement. 

W.W.
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