Interview with Gareth Jenkins, non-resident Turkey expert at the USA's Johns Hopkins University.
Q: Russian and Turkish leadership stated during recent Medvedev’s visit to Ankara about mutual interests to intensify bilateral ties. How can you explain huge interest of Turkey has been shown during last two years in cooperation with Russia?
A: I think that there are several reasons for the recent increase in cooperation between Turkey and Russia. Some are practical while others are related to similarities in how they view the world. Both governments have authoritarian tendencies (even if the Putin government is currently much more authoritarian than the AKP), have a strong sense of imperial nostalgia and feel distanced from the West. On a practical level, Russia is already Turkey’s largest trading partner, mainly because of Turkish imports of Russian energy; and, of course, a very large number of Russian tourists visit Turkey each year.
One of the ironies of the cooperation between Russia and Turkey in nuclear power is that one of the main reasons the AKP gave for trying to establish a nuclear power industry was to try to diversify Turkey’s energy resources. Given that Russia currently supplies around two thirds of Turkey’s natural gas and one third of its oil, this meant reducing Turkey’s dependence on Russia. But what has happened is that the recent nuclear cooperation agreement signed in Ankara actually increases Turkey’s dependence on Russia for energy.
Q: Russia and Turkey both have huge influence in the South Caucasus region. Do you believe that cooperation between Ankara and Moscow can bring peace and stability in the region?
A: Although both Russia and Turkey have influence in the South Caucasus, I don’t think there is any doubt that Moscow is considerably more influential than Ankara. This was clearly demonstrated during the Russia-Georgian War of August 2008 and the failure of Turkey’s initiative to establish an effective Caucasus Pact. Ultimately, it is still Russia which calls the shots. But, at the same time, if the two work together then the chances of peace and stability will undoubtedly be much greater than Russia working alone. And I doubt very much whether Turkey could achieve anything in the face of Russian opposition.
Q: President Medvedev said in Ankara that Russia supports establishing of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia. What are interests of Russia in that and is Russia able somehow to help this process of normalization?
A: I don’t think there is any doubt that Russia has more influence in Armenia than any other outside power. And, of course, ultimately, it is in everybody’s interests if all of the countries in the region have peaceful relations and diplomatic ties with each other. The only question concerns the conditions under which this can be achieved. I think Russia is as aware as anybody else that the normalization of relations between the countries of the Caucasus can only occur after a resolution of the Karabakh dispute, not before.
Q: Russia tries to divide problems of Turkish-Armenian relations and the Karabakh settlement. Such policy contradicts position of Turkey and Azerbaijan, which emphasizes the direct link between these two processes. Can we say in this regard that Turkey can’t rely on Russia in these issues?
A: In order to maintain influence in Armenia, Russia needs to maintain good relations with Yerevan. For that reason, I don’t think we are going to see Russia come out and side unequivocally with Azerbaijan. One of the prerequisites of acting as an “honest broker” in disputes is being regarded as being equidistant from the two sides. Any lasting solution has to be agreed as the result of a process of negotiation rather than being applied by force. For that reason, I don’t think it would be helpful if Russia came out and publicly sided 100 percent with one side or the other – whatever its own feelings might be about the rights and wrongs of the issue. I don’t think it is a question of whether or not Turkey can rely on Russia but whether or not Russia can deliver a negotiated solution to the Karabakh conflict. If it does deliver a solution, then that would serve everybody’s interests, including Turkey’s.
Q: Azerbaijan has good relations both with Turkey and Russia. Is it reason for expecting progress in the Karabakh settlement? And do you think that Russia and Turkey may have common views on this problem?
A: The failure to resolve the Karabakh conflict has had a negative impact on the entire region: socially, politically and economically. Of course, any negotiation demands give and take and the solution is likely to be one with which both sides can live rather than one which fulfills all of the demands of one of the side and none of the demands of the other. In the long-term, both Russia and Turkey stand to gain from a resolution of the Karabakh conflict; and there are also incremental gains for both Russia and Turkey with every step that is taken to reduce tensions and move closer to a solution. As I said, an honest broker needs to have good relations with both sides. So Azerbaijan’s good relations with Russia are very important, a prerequisite really for a settlement, which can only occur if both sides trust the party which is brokering the deal.
Lala B.
News.Az
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