Interview with F. Stephen Larrabee, Washington Office, RAND, Distinguished Chair in European Security.
Q: How can you explain the current passive role of U.S. in the Karabakh settlement and how dependant Obama’s administration is from the Armenian Diaspora?
A: The United States ahs not forgotten about the Karabakh issue. They consider a solution to be very important. However, they believe a rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia will make a settlement easier. The influence of the Armenian lobby is not that strong. The best proof is that despite numerous attempts the lobby has not been able to achieve its main goal of getting the Congress to pass the Armenian Genocide Resolution. The House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the resolution by one vote but the Obama administration succeeded in getting the Housel leadership to agree not to bring the resolution for a full vote in the House. In addition, for two years in a row, Obama has failed to use the word “genocide” in his annual speech on Armenian Remembrance day on April 24.
Q: How real is a new conflict in Karabakh with Russian participation?
A: No, I don’t think Russia has any interest in taking military action in Karabakh. Its interests are best served by keeping the Karabakh issue alive. This allows it to manipulate the conflict for its own political purposes.
Q: What do you expect from Russian and Turkish activity in our region and on bilateral level?
A: Turkish-Russian cooperation can contribute to stability in Caucasus. There is a danger, however, that Turkey is becoming too dependent on Russian gas — it currently imports more than 60% of its natural gas from Russia. This heavy dependence on Russian gas makes Turkey very cautious about criticizing Russian policy — witness its reluctance to criticize the Russian invasion of Georgia.
Q: How would you estimate Turkish attempts to stabilize situation in the South Caucasus?
A: Turkey is not in a good position to be a mediator in the Karabakh conflict since it clearly supports one party in the conflict (Azerbaijan). Its role as a mediator would therefore be unacceptable to Armenia.
Q: And what about Iran?
A: Iran is not an acceptable mediator. It has no credibility with the international community, especially the United States and key countries in Europe, and is in violation of UN resolutions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
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