Interview with Elman Nasirov, chief of the Center of Political Studies of the Academy of State Administration under the President of Azerbaijan.
Q: Milli Medjlis (parliament) has adopted a military doctrine that under certain circumstances allows the creation of temporary military bases of foreign states in Azerbaijan. What has caused this necessity?
A: As is known, in May 2007 Azerbaijan approved the Concept of National Security and then the creation or deployment of military bases of foreign countries were fully ruled out. However, the variant currently submitted in the parliament admits this opportunity. I think the motive for such changes in the position may be the fact that the peace diplomatic way of the Karabakh conflict settlement has always been at issue so far. However, the negotiations held so far including nine meetings on the level of presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Yerevan’s rejection to give a response to the updated Madrid principles prepared by the Minsk Group co-chairs, periodical protraction of the negotiation process force Baku think of alternative variant of the conflict settlement. In this connection, I would like to remind you about one of the speeches of the president in which he said that if Armenia replies positively to the Madrid proposals, the peace settlement of the conflict will be possible, but if there is no positive response from Yerevan, there will be a new stage in the Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. The new stage will certainly contain not peaceful but the forced solution to the problem. As we see, the whole negotiation process shows that Armenia does not intends to show constructivism, it is interested in preservation of status quo. In the established situation, the military way of the conflict settlement is acquiring a special importance for the Azerbaijani side. And if the issue moves into a military space, Azerbaijan will have a great need for allies. It is impossible to go without allies in case of war. In this case the issue of dislocation of military basis of the relevant foreign country is also actualizing. I think these moments are envisioned in this first military doctrine for Azerbaijan.
Q: Which country may dislocate its base in Azerbaijan? We call Russia, the United States, Turkey and even Iran our ally. Which of them can hold a base in Azerbaijan?
A: I think here we should consider two versions and Iran is ruled out of this number of possible allies. I would like to say that the keys to the Karabakh conflict are in Russia. This is an axiom. Most understand this issue like that since Russia is the only country in the world that can influence Armenia. In this sense, the issue of dislocation of the Russian military base here can appear on the agenda. Turkey is the second possible country which may place its base here. This version should also not be ruled out since Turkey is the closest strategic partner of Azerbaijan. We have no military alliance with Turkey today, that is Turkey has no obligations toward Azerbaijan to take its side against aggressor. But I am cautious in this issue, since if the Turkish base is placed in Azerbaijan and our countries sign a deal on military alliance, Turkey will have to get involved into the possible war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the said time, we should not forget that Turkey is a NATO member and in case it is involved into war, the fifth article of the NATO charter under which the rest members of the alliance will also have to take Turkey’s side will come into effect. However, inclusion of the point allowing placement of foreign military base in the Military doctrine does not mean that we will allow someone to our country tomorrow. This is just the legal possibility in case the processes start developing by an undesirable way.
Q: US Defense Secretary has visited Baku recently while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to pay a visit in the nearest future. Is this activeness caused by Washington’s intention to place its base in Azerbaijan?
A: The issue of opening of the US military base in Azerbaijan is extremely complicated. In terms of the recent events in the post-Soviet area including the events in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan I can say that the reverse process is observed there, while Washington is watching this calmly. We see Moscow’s position strengthening in this area while Washington seems to have reconciled. But I think the United States are probably concerned with the inclusion of the point allowing placement of foreign military base in the country into the Military Doctrine of Azerbaijan. In these conditions, Azerbaijan’s importance for Washington has increased. This may explain the intensiveness of the visits of high-ranking US officials to Azerbaijan. This fact provides additional opportunities for maneuvering to Azerbaijan. If the United States has a real power to settle the Karabakh conflict, has the due mechanism to conduct this and proves this by its practical steps, American can be the first candidate for placing a base here. However, if it further content itself to the political statements and expression of its position, while Moscow further intensifies in the process and shows its ability to break this knot, Russia will be able to create a base here. The same can be said about Turkey. That is, it will depend on who plays a role in the Karabakh settlement.
Q: Which conditions should be created for Azerbaijan to agree on the placement of a foreign base in its territory?
A: This is possible only when Azerbaijan is completely confident that the limit of peace talks and the potential of the diplomatic settlement are exhausted. In this case diplomats quit the bid political game and generals come to the foreground. In this case Azerbaijan may take decisive steps and again consider the issue of placement of their foreign military base.
Q: Will the placement of foreign military base in Azerbaijan not complicate our ties with neighbors?
A: This is not ruled out. But the matter is that Azerbaijan takes this step not by accident. Naturally, when diplomacy goes to the background and militants to the foreground, Azerbaijan will use all diplomatic means to explain the essence of its problem to all potentially resented neighbor states. Azerbaijan will try to explain that the diplomatic way of the problem settlement including under mediation of these neighbor states has not given any results and in this case Baku preserves the right for self-defense in line with the UN charter. At the same time, Azerbaijan may tell the resented countries that if they do not like this measure, they should try and demonstrate a clearer position and promote withdrawal of the aggressor from the occupied Azerbaijani lands.
Q: The military doctrine has been held for many years. However, there is an impression that it is being attempted to pass in the parliament hastily. What do you think is the reason of such a hurry?
A: First of all, the adoption of this doctrine here is a serious pressure on Armenia that does not respect international law and continues violating it. Also the presentation of this bill to in the parliament by the president shows that the head of state has started to take more decisive steps and Azerbaijan has started to review its attitude toward Armenia and this review does not promise anything good to Armenia. In addition, by this step Azerbaijan wants to encourage the states that have their interests in this region. I think this step by Azerbaijan has already been effective and the visit of Pentagon’s head to Baku and the planned visit of the US Secretary of State are connected with this paragraph in our doctrine. These visits are not by accident. They demonstrate the importance of Azerbaijan for the United States and our military doctrine started to encourage many players that were earlier satisfied by the role of detached observers.
Lala B.
News.Az
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