Interview with Suha Bolukbasi, Prof., Dept. of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
Q: Israel seems to have lost its sole ally among Muslim states in the region - Turkey - after the incident in the Mediterranean. How deep is the crisis between the two sides?
A: To start with, I don't believe that Israel and Turkey were ever allies. Relations were difficult durin the 1950s, 1960, 70s until Turkey decided to improve them in 1986 when it appointed a senior diplomat to the second secretary position. (From 1969 till 1986 Turkey was represented at the lowest level in Tel Aviv). The improvement in 1986 was due to Turkey desire to respond to Syrian support for the PKK. Later, in 1991 Turkey appointed an ambassador to Israel after the Madrid peace conference when many other states established diplomatic relations with Israel. (Russia and China included). In 1997 Turkish-Israeli ties became stronger because the military wanted to embarrass the Islamist Erbakan government by bypassing the government to sign agreements in military field.
The AKP government's policy of siding with the Palestinians is aimed at increasing Turkish role in Middle East politics and economy and to further its claim to big power role. The pro-Arab stance could become permanent if it lasts a long time and if Turkey were to cut off relations with Israel.
Q: Do you expect that this incident will harm strategic relations between the two countries in particular in political, military and energy spheres?
A: It seems in many areas relations will no longer be intense. Turkey seems no longer interested in extending the Russian Blue Stream pipeline to Israel. Israel, for its part stopped delivery of Heron reconnaisence aircraft to Turkey. Politically Turkey intends to publicly advocate the Palestinian cause, and this would harm relations
Q: Both Azerbaijan and Turkey used to be good partners of Israel. Do you think that the Turkish-Israeli crisis will harm the relations between Azerbaijan and Israel in any way?
A: I don't think Israeli-Azeri relations will be harmed because Azerbaijan - unlike Turkey - has no diversified diplomatic relations, and harming relations with Israel would improve its ties to the Arab world. Azerbaijan is further away from the Middle East than Turkey, and hence could not receive benefits for reducing ties to Israel.
Q: They say that Turkey has failed in its attempts to play peacemaking role in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. And what is your opinion?
A: Both the Arab-Israeli and Azeri-Armenian disputes are very difficult to settle, and Turkey's attempts would not suffice without backing of great powers such as US, EU and Russia.
Q: The Armenian side says that there is no place for Turkey in the Karabagh settlement. How would you comment this opinion?
A: Turkey's pro-Azeri stance on Karabagh did not lead to a settlement in Karabagh because Armenia - despite its desire to open the border to Turkey - would not do so if a settlement in Karabagh is Turkey's pre-condition.
Q: Do you believe that Turkey may open the borders with Armenia before withdrawal of Armenian troops from occupied territories of Azerbaijan?
A: Turkey would do so if Azerbaijan were to agree to it. I don't think Azerbaijan would ever agree to it.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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