Interview with Alexander Karavayev, deputy director general of Moscow State University's Information and Analytical Centre.
Q: The Azerbaijani parliament has adopted the Military Doctrine which allows for the presence of foreign military bases in the country. Do you think it likely that military bases will appear in Azerbaijan?
A: It is possible, if the leadership of the country considers it necessary. But the bases will not come out of nowhere; few people will agree to a foreign military presence without a real need. In addition, if there is such a need, there are ways to meet it that bypass the status of a military base. For example, this was done by the Americans in Kyrgyzstan - they call their 'base' a Transit Center at the leased part of the international airport. The radar station in Gabala is an Azerbaijani facility leased by Russia. It can also be perceived as a military base. As far as I remember, in the late 90s during the Russian-Azerbaijani negotiations Baku suggested that Moscow register it as a Russian base in Azerbaijan. This is, therefore, a matter of a legal decision and of the emergence of the kind of challenge that would require a foreign base.
Q:Is there a connection between the visits of the Russian and US defence ministers to Baku just before the adoption of the Military Doctrine?
A: I think their visits were timely and they were briefed on the doctrine. As for the possibility of foreign bases, I think this creates more room to manoeuvre in Azerbaijani policy. Baku is suggesting that the superpowers that have military interests in the region interpret this regulation as they will. For example, this can be presented to Russia as follows: there is an official Russian base in Armenia, while Azerbaijan keeps the possibility in reserve. For the United States, this is a hypothetical opportunity to expand Baku’s policy of an alliance on military operations with Washington.
Q: The Americans are showing increased attention to a military presence in Azerbaijan as it borders on Iran. Can we expect their arrival here, or will Azerbaijan prefer not to jeopardize relations with its southern neighbour in favour of US interests?
A: You know, we cannot be sure about the hypothetical steps Azerbaijan might take concerning the future world situation. It is changing. A year ago it was difficult to imagine that Russia would agree to sanctions against Iran. Today this is a fact. The United States will increase pressure on Iran. Iran is a problem for most Western countries and this will in turn influence Azerbaijan which will have to change its policy. I do not rule out a military campaign in the future after the return of the Republicans to power in Washington. However, I am completely sure that Azerbaijan will not become an area for aggression against Iran. However, the activity of the intelligence services in which Azerbaijan may take part, and I think is already taking part, as Washington’s ally is possible. But I do not see anything extraordinary here considering the global fight against Islamist networks
Q: The Russian military base, I mean the Russian soldiers at the Gabala radar station, has been in Azerbaijan for a few years now. May this station be granted the official status of a base, considering Russia’s intention to lease the facility for a long period?
A: In fact, I have already answered this question. As for the options for the future of the Gabala station, I would list two possible scenarios after 2012. The first is a joint Russian-American operation as an element of the global missile defence system and here the option of its registration as a military base is possible. The second is granting the station the status of a civilian research facility into the upper layers of the atmosphere and space. The third option is to dismantle it.
Q: What about Turkey and the possible placement of Turkish troops in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which is separated from the main part of Azerbaijan by Armenia?
A: Well, does Azerbaijan control Nakhchivan badly? I think it would be reasonable if the further placement of Turkish or other forces along the southern border of Karabakh and the occupied lands were to protect the railway from Julfa to the main part of Azerbaijan. But this option is unrealistic in terms of the conflict. Anyway, other scenarios for a Karabakh settlement are being discussed.
Q: The Military Doctrine says that the continuing occupation of part of Azerbaijan's land by Armenia is a main threat and sets the country’s armed forces objectives for a settlement of the problem. Does this mean that the prospect of a settlement by force will prevail over diplomacy for Baku?
A: I do not know. There are countries, for example, the United States, for which military methods mean a continuation of diplomacy. Others try to avoid such linkage. Azerbaijan has been put in a condition when the use of military methods is, basically, justified, though of course within specific frameworks.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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