Interview with Rasim Agayev, Azerbaijani political scientist.
Q: How may the St.Petersburg meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia influence the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh?
A: I would not bind the process of the Karabakh conflict settlement to any meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is far more important to speak of tendencies. In this connection, it is necessary to recall that we are witnessing the growing activeness of the United States in our region on the whole and in relation to our country. The visit of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to our country, as well as the upcoming visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Azerbaijan, along with Obama’s letter to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are enough to understand official Washington’s position about reducing tensions in the relations between our countries. It is clear that the United States has become aware of the risk of being evicted from the South Caucasus region, where Azerbaijan is a key figure for the reason of insufficient understanding of the importance of the fair resolution of the Karabakh conflict for our country. Considering the fact that the United States has not disavowed the intention to consolidate in the South Caucasus region, this superpower will continue steps to settle this problem. Naturally, Russia also does not want to lose the influence in our region, which means the agenda will include the coordination of the interests of the United States and Russia regarding the ways to settle the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabakh that resulted in occupation of our lands for almost two decades. And I do not rule out that this agreement will be reached. The United States is interested in not only the penetration and consolidation in the South Caucasus but also the development of the Turkish-Armenian relations.
Q: A group of congressmen both from the republican and democratic party has spoken at a special news conference with a sharp criticism addressing Turkey’s policy. In particular, the congressmen announced that they will consider possible support to the resolution on “Armenian genocide” if Turkey does not change its anti-Israeli policy. How does not it comply with the US position you indicated which is interested in the development of the Turkish-Armenian relations?
A: Naturally, US congressmen may have their point of view on any issue. Probably, they do not know the whole history that occurred in the Ottoman empire in 1915 when Armenians betrayed the country where they lived well. Finally, the US congressmen are oriented on fulfillment of obligations before their voters and they are not so much interested in such global issues as the geopolitical implications of recognition of the myth about “Armenian genocide” for the United States which may deprive this superpower of such an influential and reliable ally as Turkey once and forever. Meanwhile, the US president cannot be satisfied with such a prospect. Therefore, we have already seen the US president imposing veto on the resolutions of the US congressmen on this issue. On the other hand, the United States will certainly try to attain their goal, which lies in the consolidation of the United States in the South Caucasus region and normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations, any mechanisms of pressure on official Ankara, including the blackmail with the issue of mythical “Armenian genocide”. However, official Washington understands that blackmail has its limits. It means that the White House will not put a strong pressure due to the risk to spoil relations with Turkey. In other words, the coordination of US and Turkish interests takes place here.
Q: Can the indicated coordination of US interests with Russia and Turkey result in real steps on deoccupation of Azerbaijani lands in the nearest future?
A: It is not ruled out. For example, in case the United States and Russia coordinate their interests, Armenia may return several occupied regions around Karabakh to Azerbaijan under the pressure of these superpowers in exchange for the agreement of official Baku to allow the Turkish and US peacekeepers to Nakhchivan. Other phased steps in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict may be discussed in the future. The most important is to achieve the coordination of US and Russian interests in this issue and there are grounds and preconditions for this.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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