Interview with Anatoly Tsiganok, military expert, head of the Russian Center of Military Forecast of Institute of Political and Military Analysis.
Q: Is there a possibility that any state will place its military base in Azerbaijan?
A: This perspective is real in the nearest future since as is known three years ago Azerbaijan permitted the creation of two radar stations in its territory. One is oriented on Russia and another on Iran. By the way, when Iranian mass media learned about it, they said if Americans are working at these stations, the Iranian artillery may launch fire at these stations. Anyway, I think this decision of the Azerbaijani government is not quite correct, since the presence of foreign bases turns the country into a target for terrorists. I am sure that these bases-American and probably Israeli or Turkish- will become an additional stimulus for terror in Azerbaijan. I do not think it is important for Azerbaijan to have these bases, especially because Azerbaijan is quite an influential country. Azerbaijan has its own resources and it would be incorrect to say that it is good for a country to have bases.
Q: The Azerbaijani powers always say that they will never take steps to damage their southern neighbors. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers have been serving in the country for a few years, I mean the Gabala radar station. Can the status of this station be transformed into a military base?
A: Russian authorities have already offered Americans to use this radar station jointly. Americans visited this station, inspected its state and said it is not suitable by some parameters. In addition, they have already changed their view this year saying the station can be used for common purpose. As far as I know, the Azerbaijani government agrees on the presence of US soldiers at this object. But we should not forget that Russia is going to get rid of all radar stations abroad.
Q: Do you think Russia will reject Gabala completely?
A: Yes, but, anyway, the cooperation with Azerbaijan is long-term. Azerbaijan still continues to purchase a part of armament produced at the enterprises of the Soviet times, though, as far as I know, the country holds a greater part of NATO-produced armament. And I understand the Azerbaijani government. It is necessary to diversify armament in order not to depend either from Russia or NATO.
Q: What can you say about Azerbaijan’s possible agreement for the military presence of any country in its territory in case it promotes the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: I do not think the placement of these bases will promote this. Anyway, the gentlemen agreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia are still preserved and appearance of bases will not promote the conflict settlement. I would like to note one more point. A war with participation of the Russian army and soldiers prepared by NATO specialists occurred in the post-Soviet area for the first time in August 2008. This war demonstrated that the Russian/Soviet training, technical capacities and tactics are better than American despite the Georgian is quite strong. Its power is in its good equipment and good conduction of hostilities. This is probably the second army in the post-Soviet area where the Israeli command attempted to transfer everything to the digital technologies and was not in time to do it before the blitzkrieg.
Lala B.
News.Az
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