Interview with Sinan Ogan, president of the Center of International Relations and Strategic Research.
Q: Can the intensification of Moscow in the Karabakh settlement lead to positive results in the conflict settlement?
A: It depends on which Moscow is implied. If earlier we implied one Moscow, now we imply two, I mean Medvedev or Putin’s Moscow. It is possible to say that Medvedev conducts policy differing from the previous powers of Russia. Putin’s Russia considered that the status quo in the Karabakh conflict, that is the preservation of the state of neither peace nor war, satisfies Russia. Moscow considered that in this case Azerbaijan and Armenia will remain under Moscow’s influence. But today Medvedev has a different position and he is more close to the idea of attainment of peace. Therefore, when answering the question, it is primarily necessary to specify the Moscow implied.
Naturally, in period of his presidency Putin played a passive role in this process while Medvedev is more active which means Russia’s role in the attainment of peace may become more significant. However, it does not mean that Medvedev wishes the soonest resolution of the conflict. It is impossible to change the system of approaches to problems so quickly in Russia. This system is not so interested in the complete attainment of peace. This means that even if the peace process starts, Russia considers that the issue must not find its complete solution and dependence of Azerbaijan and Armenia on Moscow must be preserved.
Q: Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian stressed the impossibility of Turkey’s mediation of the Karabakh conflict though most observers say that Ankara’s involvement in the process is already a reality. What do you think about it?
A: Certainly, Armenia will never want Turkey’s participation in these processes since Armenia knows that Turkey’s participation in these processes will lead to the completion of the conflict in Azerbaijan’s favor. But not everything depends on Armenia’s wish. The improvement of the Turkish-Russian relations gives a certain place for Turkey in these processes. Though, the difference in the views of Medvedev and Putin is reflected in this issue. Putin does not want Turkey’s participation in these processes, while Medvedev supports Turkey’s presence in these matters. Though Armenia avoids Turkey’s participation, Ankara is already present in these processes. I would like to noted that Russia is not interested in the complete presence of Turjey in these processes since the full dependence of Azerbaijan and Armenia on Moscow is challenged. Russia wants Turkey to participate to a certain extent.
Q: Can the joint participation of Turkey and Russia in these processes lead to positive results in the Karabakh settlement?
A: In case this scheme is implemented, it will certainly have a positive impact on the conflict settlement. However, the implementation of this scheme is not so easy. The process of holding the meeting of Turkish, Russian and Armenian sides in Sochi is currently being developed. However, Armenia does not agree to it. On the whole, the processes ongoing in the region, the overall nonpolitical situation is changing in favor of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the middle term perspective. As for the short term perspective, certainly, the worsening of the Turkish-Israel and US-Turkish relations does not serve the processes. But I am sure that this worsening will be removed as soon as possible.
Q: Which actions should we expected from Armenia in the issues of Karabakh settlement and normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations?
A: In the short-term perspective, Armenia will be striving to avoid attainment of peace until 2015, when the 100th anniversary of the mythical “Armenian genocide” is marked. Armenia will not want to be in conditions of peace with Turkey until that. Therefore, such a situation may cause changes in Armenia’s plans. Today Armenia can achieve the adoption of anti-Turkish decisions via the parliaments of Western countries, under pretense of closed borders, absence of relations with Turkey. However, if the Karabakh problem is settled along with the improvement of the Turkish-Armenian relations, the parliamentarians of western countries will stress the absence of the need to adopt such decisions. Therefore, Armenia will try to put off the process of normalization of relations for the period after 2015. Therefore, I do not see real achievements in these processes before 2015.
But, certainly, it should be noted that there are no categorical situations in international relations. Every event and every new factor influences the processes. One of these factors is that Azerbaijan is strengthening and Armenia is weakening. Azerbaijani army outstrips Armenia by strength. Even if Armenia does not wish any changes until 2015, anyway, it will face the fact that Azerbaijan may start war any time and win.
Q: Which is the result of the recent policy of the Turkish government of zero problems with neighbors in the light of freezing the process of the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols and worsening of the Turkish-Israeli relations?
A: I share the positions of those who consider that this policy has failed. It is impossible to gain the absence of problems with all countries in international policy. However, it is possible to expand ties and reduce problems with definite countries to minimum. There are serious achievements in Turkish-Iranian, Turkish-Iraqi relations. The relations between Turkey and Armenia are worsening. They have entered a deadlock, that is the relations between these countries have failed even compared to the period when there were no protocols between Turkey and Armenia. As I have noted, no breakthrough is expected between these countries before 2015.
W.W.
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