Interview with Alexey Vlasov, director of Moscow State University's analytical centre on post-Soviet states.
Q: What can you say about the recent round of talks between the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by Russian president in Saint Petersburg?
A: It is currently impossible to speak of any serious achievements in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. One can think that the process has begun to slow down which causes a special resentment in Baku. But I think there are still hopes for serious changes in the peace process. The efforts of Moscow and Ankara aimed at attaining compromise are the reason for this optimism without which the reconciliation of the sides on Nagorno Karabakh will be almost impossible, I think. But these are just good wishes rather than the real state of affairs and here lies the problem.
Q: By results of this meeting the news service for the Kremlin made a statement in which it stressed the attainment of a small progress during negotiations. Which kind of progress could it have been?
A: Frankly speaking, this is still a secret for me since this formulation was not specified. In addition, an unpleasant worsening of the situation which is interpreted differently by each side has occurred in Karabakh. I think it will be possible to speak of serious achievements when Azerbaijan and Armenia demonstrate a stable dynamics of reconciliation of positions. This is an issue of not the present but the past. Until that each of the completing meetings will end with a ritual phrase about moderate optimism and this optimism will be mostly demonstrated by mediators during negotiations. They need to get any real substantiation of their success.
Q: The tensions on the front line of the Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces have grown after the recent meeting of presidents, there were fire exchanges and attacks on Azerbaijani positions which led to losses from both sides. Does it show that the parties have exhausted the negotiation potential and are currently prepared for war?
A: In fact, I have already answered this question. I think this situation is extremely unpleasant but still not critical. At least, none of the parties have declared its intention to quit the negotiation process. In addition, which alternatives can be proposed? I remember the old Russian saying about a bad corn promise and good lawsuit. In this situation, the cost of the new round of confrontation may turn out too high for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Q: What do you think about prospects of the military solution of the conflict settlement at the current stage?
A: In the current world realities, any conflict may be only short-term. The winner gets the desired in 1-2 days and fixes the victory in some diplomatic steps like it was in August 2008. I think neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan have such a potential for “blitzkrieg”. Meanwhile, any alternative ways do not suit strategically, since they carry too many risks both for Yerevan and Baku. Thus, there is a threat, but common sense shows that no one is ready to go till the end so far. Though, I would like to draw your attention to the word “so far”. That is, the situation may change in the future.
Q: Can the military way of the conflict settlement lead to repetition of August 2008 events for Azerbaijan and the further recognition of independence of Karabakh by Russia?
A: I think this issue is not like that. Naturally, there are definite risks related to the start of the conflict around Karabakh and the intervention of external forces, but they cannot be interpreted this way, since the events in Kyrgyzstan have shown that external players are trying to avoid any conflict situation because there are too many risks and too many unpredicted implications.
Q: Considering the fact that Armenia is the CSTO member, will an attempt of the forced restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan be assessed by CSTO as an attack against Armenia?
A: The real potential of CSTO was also demonstrated during the Kyrgyz events. I think there is no sense of making a fright of this organization which will interfere with the Karabakh conflict and take Armenia’s side. The use of the CSTO forces in any form seems unlikely to me in the nearest future.
W.W.
News.Az
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