Interview with Sinan Ogan, president of the Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis.
Q: Turkey’s peacekeeping efforts on the Middle East and South Caucasus have not yet been effective. Do you think that these Turkish diplomatic efforts will be fruitful?
A: I would like to think so, but it is not too easy. Israel in the Middle East and Armenia in the South Caucasus are far from peace. Both regions have serious problems in this respect. The settlement of these problems anytime soon is considered impossible. However, it is easier to settle problems in the Caucasus than in the Middle East. Peace in the Caucasus can be achieved if both parties want it. Turkey’s unilateral efforts are insufficient. It requires Israel in the Middle East and Armenia in the Caucasus to take steps to achieve peace.
Q: The US leadership says that Turkey as a strategic partner of the United States could become a leader of the Islamic world and at the same time puts pressure on Ankara over Armenia and Israel. What can you say about it?
A: This is an example of the policy of double standards of the US and West overall. Turkey has to pay for what is demanded by the United States. However, despite four resolutions of the UN Security Council, which clearly specify that Armenia is an occupying country, no-one headed by Obama says: “Armenia, you are an occupier, get out of the occupied lands.” Everyone asks Turkey: “Why don’t you open borders with Armenia?” Now the United States does not see the land occupied by Armenia, they do not see the murder of nine Turks aboard a Turkish ship in international waters. At a time when the United States is an occupier in Iraq, they do not notice the terrorist PKK which commits terror acts against Turkey from Iraq. The United States is concerned only that Turkey meets all their demands.
Q: Do you think there will be progress soon on a Karabakh conflict settlement?
A: If Armenia is empowered to settle this issue, it is obvious that the Karabakh conflict will not be settled by 2015. Turkey will be waiting until 2015 when Armenia marks the 100th anniversary of the events of 1915, when the Armenian population residing in areas of hostilities was settled in safe areas. Armenia views these events as genocide, and is trying to gain compensation from Turkey by 2015. If the Karabakh conflict is settled, the Turkish-Armenian border will open and relations with Armenia will normalize. In this situation it will not be too easy to attain the resolutions of western parliaments against Turkey. Therefore, Armenia will try to prevent and protract the solution to the Karabakh conflict. But Armenia itself has a serious problem. Time is working for Azerbaijan and against Armenia since Azerbaijan is growing stronger while Armenia is growing weaker. On the other hand, Azerbaijan may start war. For this reason, Armenia may agree to some kind of peace in 2011.
Q: Turkey has been playing quite an active role in the South Caucasus in the past two years. May this activeness prompt concern among the other major players in the region - Russia and the United States?
A: I do not agree that Turkey has been holding an active policy in the South Caucasus over these two years. I would like it to have done so. Turkey was neutral on the Georgian war, preserving good relations with both the United States and Russia. Turkey has not yet made an initiative on Karabakh. Relations with Armenia have reached deadlock. Relations with Azerbaijan were also on the verge of collapse but have recently started to pick up. A country with an active foreign policy should not have all the problems I mentioned. Turkey, which is not active, does not pose a threat to either Russia or the United States.
Q: May the intensification of Russian-Turkish cooperation, especially in the economic sphere, help to strengthen stability in our region?
A: It is possible to say that relations between Turkey and Russia are expanding which will, certainly, have a positive impact on the region. This will also have a positive impact on the settlement of problems over Nagorno-Karabakh. During Bush’s presidency, the United States was jealous about Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia. However, nothing of the kind can be seen during the Obama period. US-Russian relations are also expanding. Medvedev's and Putin’s policies in this regard differ
Q: Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan were a little overshadowed by the signing of the protocols on Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Is it possible to say that today all these differences between our countries have been left behind?
A: Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are unlike relations between other countries. Our relations are developing according to the principle “One nation - two states”. We may have problems but they will never cause major differences. Currently, improvements can be seen in relations between Ankara and Baku, but we cannot say that all the problems are behind us. While the Karabakh conflict remains unresolved, the opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia remains possible. The borders may open for several days for people to come from Armenia to attend a ceremony in the Armenian church in Van in Turkey on 19 September.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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