Interview with Sergey Markov, deputy of the Russian State Duma and director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies.
Q: What can you say about the negotiation process on the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict, in particular, the updated variant of Madrid principles? Is it possible to say that the negotiation process has been stalled?
A: It would be incorrect to say that the negotiation process on the Karabakh conflict has been stallen since the negotiations have several goals. First is the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, second, the prevention of conflict freezing and start of military actions. The negotiation process has not gone too far on the first point while the second point is working and there is no war. Therefore, the negotiation process has not entered a deadlock. It is moving further. As for the updated variant of Madrid principles I think there will be a crisis in the negotiation process. The matter is that the shift of powers is observed in the region, in particular, the increase in Azerbaijan’s potential. In this situation time is working in Baku’s favor though previously it was in Yerevan’s favor, since the latter benefits from the status quo. Yerevan will probably start searching some ways of avoiding this crisis though the correlation of powers has not changed in Azerbaijan’s favor too much. A number of European politicians believe that the correlation of powers have changed quite enough for the problem to be settled in Baku’s favor. Though I think today there will appear some intentions to form some crisis.
Q: The UN international court in Hague has decided that Kosovo did not violate the norms of international law by declaring independence. For the first time international law recognized legitimacy of the secession of the province of the UN member-state. Meanwhile, Yerevan states that this precedent should be used for the national interests of Armenia. Is the application of the Kosovo precedent real in case with the Nagorno Karabakh issue?
A: It is absolutely clear that the opinion of the international court on the Kosovo issue is a great victory of the United States and EU and a serious victory of those separatist political regimes that formed in most regions, in particular, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh in the post-Soviet area. Naturally, these regimes will actively refer to the opinion of the Hague court. Meanwhile, it should be noted that they cannot appeal to the court independently since the opinion of the Hague court was mostly influenced by the political pressure of Washington and EU which resulted in Kosovo’s independence rather than international law. Therefore, I think if Nagorno Karabakh has appealed to the Hague court, the decision was not the same like in case with Kosovo. But this precedent will be actively referred to along with the right of nations for self-determination. In fact, the Hague court confirmed that the self-proclaimed state will be able to secede from a country and declare independence.
Q: The temporary status of Nagorno Karabakh and the deployment of peacekeeping troops in the region are among the key issues in the updated variant of Madrid principles. Is the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh possible? Does the deployment of the Russian peacekeepers in the conflict area meet Moscow’s interests?
A: Moscow has a contradictory attitude to this issue. On the one hand, Russia does not want war and it is interested in such difficult conflicts as Nagorno Karabakh and others to come closer to any resolution. On the other hand, Moscow is not interested in carrying any peacekeeping burden, either financial, political or humanitarian. Nonetheless, Moscow is ready to assume this burden in case there are definite political goals. That is the guaranteed rejection to resume war would have become a political goal. Meanwhile, political forces in Armenia and Azerbaijan treat the situation with responsibility and war will hardly occur. On the whole, Moscow is ready for the peacekeeping activity only at the agreement of all parties.
Q: Do you really think that the key to solution of the Karabakh conflict is in the Kremlin?
A: I think the key is only in Baku and Yerevan. These countries will settle the issue. Today no one can make them take any variant of the conflict solution. Anyway, the situation may change in the case if geopolitical situation in the region changes cardinally. If this occurs, there will emerge a new serious trend. It is difficult to specify the trend but now I can say for sure that time works on Azerbaijan.
B.A
News.Az
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