Interview with Thijs Rommens, Research fellow, Institute for International and European Policy (IIEP) at the KU Leuven, Belgium.
Q: Will the European partnership program reduce dependence of post-Soviet countries on Russia?
A: The ENP and EaP indeed offer the partner countries possibilities for cooperation with and integration into certain EU initiatives and structures. However, this is not a specifically anti-Russian policy. The idea is that these policies are benefiting the partner countries themselves and are driven by their demands. This may not have been that successful in the early years of the ENP, but with the inception of the EaP there is a noticeable change. The current negotiations on Association Agreements with the three South Caucasian republics are focussing on visa liberalisation and deep and comprehensive free trade areas. These were demands that were mainly raised by the partner countries.
Q: Is EU ready to compete with Russia for interests in the CIS area where Russian influence was traditionally strong?
A: I would say that this is an inaccurate description of the situation. A mentioned above, the EU does not use the ENP/EaP as a tool against Russia and it was never intended to be used as such. Besides, if you would only take into account Russia en the EU in the post soviet area you leave out important actors such as the US, Turkey, Kazakhstan and the Middle Eastern states. For the South Caucasus, they are probably more important than the EU, especially in the field of investment and trade. It remains to be seen if the EU will be attractive enough as a social economic model in the long run or if these countries, often with less regulations and more money to spend, will become more dominant in the region.
Q: Is it possible to speak of links between the Russian-Georgian war and the suspension of NATO’s expansion to the East?
A: The two are certainly connected, but there is the problem of causality. The decision to at least postpone any membership prospects for Georgia had already been taken at the NATO Bucharest summit of April 2008. The outbreak of war in August only seemed to have weakened the chances for Georgia to become a NATO member soon. There is the problem of territorial integrity, the unwillingness to further antagonize Russia among a lot of European member states and the fear to be dragged into a war no one wants.
Q: Can the start of Azerbaijan’s negotiations with EU on associative agreement make country’s membership in EU closer?
A: The ENP/EaP and the Association Agreements do not entail membership prospects. If one considers the difficulties and speed of progress with the current potential members in the Balkans and Turkey the chances for membership of Azerbaijan seem slim. The goal of the current processes is not to offer membership, but to offer the partner countries the possibility, know how and incentives to bring their political and economic systems in line with the European model. The idea behind this is that this is not only a good thing because it could lead to membership, but that it is a good thing for the partner countries themselves. How far they are willing to go in this process is still an open question. The lack of conditionality makes it less appealing for leaders of the partner countries to implement potentially painful domestic changes. This certainly weakens the ENP/EaP compared to the enlargement process.
Q: Do you agree that the West still does not perceive the Karabakh conflict as a general threat to Europe?
A: Although the western countries and institutions pay lip service to their commitment to settle the conflict, they are mostly concerned in avoiding any new bloodshed. As there are other hotspots closer by such as Bosnia or Moldova, Nagorno-Karabakh is not on top of the list. Having said this, the actual settlement of the conflict has to be supported and implemented by the parties involved. The “west” or any other actor thus could facilitate a settlement, but only if there is willingness by all parties to come to an actual agreement.
Aliyah Fridman
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