Mehmet F Celebi
The UN Security Council, however, immediately followed with a new round of sanctions on Iran after the United States criticized the deal for falling short of exchanging all of the LEU Iran possessed. But on July 26, Iran sent a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, saying it was ready to negotiate the details of exchanging 2,646 pounds of its own 3 percent enriched uranium for 265 pounds of 20 percent enriched uranium, which would virtually account for all of the known LEU stockpile Iran is estimated to have.
There are few, if any, other powers that could have negotiated this deal with Iran besides Turkey. The agreement is not much different than a plan the United Nations drafted last year, which Iran rejected. Still, some in the West have misguidedly looked at Turkey’s improved relations with its neighbors – especially Iran – with suspicion, and its important to note that Iran has been just as cautious of Turkey’s aspirations, albeit less vocally.
Recently, Farid al-Din Hadad Adel, the journalist grandson of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who is also affiliated with Iran’s elites and the intelligence community, called Turkey’s recent prominence “a direct threat to Iran and its national interests in the region.” He pointed out that the most popular flag in Gaza was Turkey’s and not Iran’s; the most popular name for newborns was Erdogan and not Ahmadinejad; and the growing market share in Syria, one of Iran’s closest allies, was being captured by Turkish businessmen and not Iranian businessmen. Leadership of the Islamic world was increasingly being held by Turkish officials and not Iranians, while the general public opinion on the Arab streets was overwhelmingly pro-Turkey – despite 32 years of Iranian efforts and billions of dollars spent to advance the Islamic Republic’s agenda in the region.
This makes the deal a win-win for the West. Should Turkey’s diplomatic efforts fail due to Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate, as some predict, not only would Iran lose the only credible friend and advocate it has, it would also likely lose the support of Iran’s traditional Arab allies. There are those in Turkey who privately suggest that sour relations would leave Iran, whose leaders have staked their reputations on the nuclear deal by challenging the world’s superpowers on the issue, truly isolated – something the West has been desiring but been unable to accomplish for decades.
There were public statements of support for the deal by China and Russia, though messages coming from Washington have been mixed. Although the White House said that the transfer of LEU abroad would be a “positive step,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has told Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of Turkey’s current proactive foreign policy, to be suspicious of any agreement which resulted from the nuclear diplomacy. Before the deal, she also appeared publicly skeptical of Turkey’s efforts, complaining that Iran was likely to continue its nuclear program under any circumstances.
It seems, however, that the deal makes considerable progress on a number of fronts. It satisfies Iran, is based on a deal already offered by the United Nations, and enables both sides a way out of a dangerous standoff.
Turkey will have to continue to make the best of its good relations with Iran to ensure continual monitoring of Iranian nuclear activity, to maintain the goodwill of all sides. While neither complete nor perfect, the agreement is a confidence-building measure that allows the best chance for diplomacy the world has had since the Iranian nuclear program became an international issue. Some objections may be valid, however they are far from sufficient to nix this deal and quash the swelling positive momentum. Such opposition misses the basis, essence, and potential of this deal.
Mehmet F. Celebi is a member of the Dean’s International Council at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy Studies. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.
Source: The Daily Star
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