Turkey could play a leading role in spearheading efforts to encourage Georgia and Azerbaijan to establish a common platform that could be a catalyst for improving peace and stability in the region, along with boosting ties among Caucasian countries, as Turkish President Abdullah Gül is kicking off a two-day visit to Baku today.
Georgia proposed establishing a confederation to Azerbaijan last month in a bid to create a two-state political entity that would deal with common problems faced by former Soviet Union republics.
Georgia’s proposal was very similar to a proposal Turkey made two years ago and carries the seeds of a promising union that would be staunchly supported by Turkey. Gül will make a two-day visit to Baku from Aug. 16-17 to discuss energy issues with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in addition to other bilateral issues. Among the topics to be covered by both leaders, Aliyev and Gül are also expected to discuss the possible establishment of a platform between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey following Turkey’s thus-far failed project the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP).
“The offer to initiate confederate relations between Georgia and Azerbaijan from [Georgian President] Mikheil Saakashvili will be dominating the discussion during the Turkish president’s Baku visit,” Elkhan Şahinoğlu, the head of Baku-based Atlas Research Center, said in an interview with Today’s Zaman.
During Aliyev’s one-day visit to the Georgian resort city of Batumi on July 18, Saakashvili proposed establishing a confederation between the two countries to further boost bilateral ties and further ever-increasing relations in both trade and security. “We are an extension of each other, we are parts of one organism,” the Georgian president said, stressing his nation’s historical ties with the region’s only Muslim country.
During the Batumi meeting with Aliyev, while underlining the special and distinguished relationship between Azerbaijan and Georgia, Saakashvili said anything that hurts Azerbaijan, hurts Georgia as well.
Şahinoğlu noted that Turkey is eager to see how interested the Azerbaijani government is in Saakashvili’s proposal. “If such a confederation is expected to be established, Turkey’s involvement in this project will be on the agenda,” he said, referring to the CSCP initiated by Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan two years ago after the August war between Russia and Georgia erupted over the latter’s breakaway region of South Ossetia.
The nations of the South Caucasus were united in a confederative state in 1917 following the October Revolution in Russia. The federation had decided to declare war on the Ottoman Empire, but as the Muslim founding member of the federation, Azerbaijan voted against the proposal. Azerbaijan’s strong solidarity with Turkey shook the federation’s solidarity, and the three countries eventually declared independence in May of 1918.
Speaking to Today’s Zaman, Kamer Kasım, an expert on the region from the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), said the feasibility of the CSCP is related to Russia’s willingness to cooperate, even if Armenia protests. “Although initially Russia seemed in favor of this project in order to seem like a responsible party that heeded the international community on the eve of its war with Georgia, it never came to fruition as Russia did not change its position on Georgia,” Kasım explained.
Even without any binding organization or platform, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are already heavily involved in major regional projects. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project are only some of the projects that the three countries have successfully undertaken so far. Growing trade relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey are also expanding to include Georgia. Similar to Kasım’s views, Şahinoğlu said the platform could only be realized between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
“Russia’s recognition of two disputed regions in Georgia and the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia hinder the platform’s ability to become an effective mechanism,” Şahinoğlu underlined. Calling Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey true allies, the expert stressed that the proposal to establish a confederation between Azerbaijan and Georgia by Saakashvili does not seem too realistic in the short term. “It requires comprehensive negotiations that would send a serious message to Armenia,” he concluded.
Armenia and Azerbaijan were engaged in a full-fledged war in the early 1990s over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia occupies seven adjacent provinces to Nagorno-Karabakh, which according to Azerbaijan is not a “subject of dispute.” Despite a Russian-brokered cease-fire in 1994, both countries still engage in small border skirmishes almost everyday.
Kasım questioned the effectiveness of the platform by arguing that if Azerbaijan and Georgia truly desire to establish a confederation, then the emergence of a distinct entity might shift the political situation in the Caucasus. He said the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, along with problems related to Georgia’s secessionist regions, would become a regional problem.
Azerbaijan has said it will not cooperate with Armenia in any umbrella organization unless the country withdraws its troops from occupied territories. Russia has also expressed similar views, saying it will not sit at the same negotiating table with Georgia’s current Western-back leader, Saakashvili. These realities further complicate any cooperation projects in the region, leaving Turkey’s CSCP project in limbo.
LAMIYA ADILGIZI BAKU
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